hank - NOTE, do NOT email me items moderators reject! wrote:
> But ... it boggles me to see this level of disagreement about what the
> meaning of "is" is, in this context.
I think it's just that people are trying to decide whether Hansen is
actually saying that the IPCC authors were wrong to write what they did
at that time, or merely that subsequent evidence has overturned their
conclusion. In fact, it doesn't seem clear to me that either version is
all that reasonable.
Many of Hansen's references are to his own presentation (ref 17) which
could IMO be arguably described as handwaving, rather than any clear
scientifically-justified quantitative argument. I think if septics were
to make opposing arguments on a similar basis they would risk getting
vigorously fisked on certain climate blogs I could mention :-)
However, I have to admit I've got a bit of a soft spot for the man. He
seems to have conducted himself with dignity in the face of some pretty
spiteful attacks. He also put his reputation on the line with his 1988
forecast - and was stunningly vindicated (I've always viewed prediction
as being fundamental to the whole scientific endeavour). And his work on
alternative scenarios is imaginative and constructive. It increasingly
seems to me that all scientists step over the "gone emeritus" line
eventually, but I do hope that he manages to stay on the right side of
it for a while longer!
James
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