Tom Adams wrote: > I am trying to better understand climate impact prediction.
We all are. Well, most of us. Some would rather hope the problem just goes away (they know who they are). > Sea level rise get lots of press, but it seem to be far off in the > future, at least the dire consequences for the US. Generally I agree though it does depend on where you live. > Isn't drought one of the bigger threats to the US in the next 30 years? We don't know. I have little faith in the ability of most present-day GCMs to predict the direction, much less the magnitude, of changes in precipitation over most of the U.S. Various statistical and dynamical "downscaling" approaches are being used to try and get to the scales relevant for hydroclimate. > What are the biggest threats in that time-frame. I wish I knew. We are trying to find out. > Does the US have a good adaptation plans against sustained drought? > Pretty much come down to migration, right? You might try looking at the web site for the National Drought Mitigation Center, http://drought.unl.edu/ > If not drought, what do you think the next big AGW induced > disaster/migration will be in the US, assuming New Orleans was the > first. I don't necessarily agree with your concluding assumption, nor with your more general proposition that it is possible to say any specific event is "AGW induced." --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
