Raymond Arritt wrote:
> Tom Adams wrote:

<snip>

> >   What are the biggest threats in that time-frame.
>
> I wish I knew.  We are trying to find out.

Stick around, I'm sure we'll have a good idea in 30 years.

> > Does the US have a good adaptation plans against sustained drought?
> > Pretty much come down to migration, right?
>
> You might try looking at the web site for the National Drought
> Mitigation Center, http://drought.unl.edu/

Most municipalities plan their water needs on the assumption that a
drought lasts no more than 7 years.  As far as I know, only a tiny
handful have started planning for the permanent changes in water budget
that could result from climate change.  Most water management is about
having large enough reserves to get through the dry spells, but climate
change may bring unending dryness to some areas.

> > If not drought, what do you think the next big AGW induced
> > disaster/migration will be in the US, assuming New Orleans was the
> > first.

I expect climate change will be marked much more often by slow shifts
towards new conditions than it will be by abrupt major disasters.  On
the timescale of human lives, climate change is still generally a very
slow process.

-Robert A. Rohde
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/


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