There's an amusing post on RC by one of the authors:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/01/arctic-sea-ice-decline-in-the-21st-century/
"There is considerable uncertainty in future model projections, and Figs
2 and 4 illustrate why it would be better not to focus too much on the
year 2040, which to our dismay was highly publicized."
Here is the press release:
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/arctic.shtml
which is titled:
"Abrupt Ice Retreat Could Produce Ice-Free Arctic Summers by 2040"
and starts off with:
"The recent retreat of Arctic sea ice is likely to accelerate so rapidly
that the Arctic Ocean could become nearly devoid of ice during
summertime as early as 2040"
with 2040 mentioned several more times in the content (and no other
dates featured).
The paper itself is at:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL028024.shtml
The only date mentioned in the abstract is 2040:
"One event exhibits a decrease from 6 million km2 to 2 million km2 in a
decade, reaching near ice-free September conditions by 2040."
(again, no other dates are indicated)
I'm left wondering what sort of publicity they were expecting from this...
James
PS According to the Japanese model MIROC, the sea ice has already
disappeared (fig 4 in the RC post) :-)
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