Gareth wrote:
Thanks for the link to the Maslowski presentation, and the interesting
speculation on THC. It seems logical that we're looking at a heat
transfer process - heating of ocean in the tropics, carried north and
east by the NA gyre, sending a lot of heat into the seas around
Svalbard and further east.. The recent warm year/autumn in Europe - and
current warm winter in Norway - would suggest that a large pulse of
heat is on its way into the Arctic.
Tipping point in 1998? Big El Nino? 2007 is an El Nino year...
A related issue: once the Arctic is ice-free in summer (whether in ten
years or thirty), what happens to winter ice extent/thickness? How long
before the Arctic is substantially ice free in winter?
The loss of all the sea-ice at the end of the summer melt season would
necessitate that there would no longer be any "multi year" or
" perennial" sea-ice. The multi-year ice is thicker than first year
ice, so it's loss would likely result in continued loss of first year
ice as well.
Anyway, that's not my field, but here's some further reading for those
interested.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/rich2952/rich2952.pdf
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