Good points, Heiko, and thanks. Is it even clear how much the samples overlap? If the response is voluntary, the shift wouldn't be significant even without an intervening election.
That there is no sample bias? If the respondents are self-selected this means little about the overall position of the congress. There is cringe-inducing stuff on both sides but I would say the stuff from the Democrats is more credulous and less informed. On the other other hand, that probably isn't a random sample either. mt On Apr 8, 10:44 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-op-chait25mar25,0,3... > > The two surveys are available here: > > http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~weaver/national_journal_2006_04_01_ins... > > http://syndication.nationaljournal.com/images/203Insiderspoll_NJlogo.pdf > > The results are based on 58 Republicans (first poll) and 55 > Republicans (second poll). > > The difference between the first and second poll therefore amounts to > 5 or 6 congress members (10% of 58 or 55). > > By far the easiest way to explain the difference is therefore that > said 5 members of congress came from vulnerable seats and lost them in > between the two surveys. > > I've got some other minor quibbles. Like, the question asked isn't the > same. In the first survey the word "pollution" is used, where in the > second the word "problem" appears. This may have made a difference to > the answer, and for example might have moved one Democrat to give a > different answer in the second survey (instead of 98% of Democrats > answering with a simple yes, in the second survey it's only 95%). > > -------------------- > > It's not really that helpful to label Republicans denialists, it's > rather divisive and dismissive. > > Michael Tobis mentioned that he would have probably answered "Yes it's > a crisis", even though he didn't really think that that's quite the > right way to put it, because, if I understand him right, an answer > "No, it's not a crisis" would be misunderstood. > > Likewise, I think many Republicans might conceivably be reluctant to, > with a similar border line question (which hinges on what "beyond > reasonable doubt" means), answer in the affirmative, because they > don't want their position to be misunderstood. > > -------------------- > > It seems a no brainer that people already favourable to CAFE > (Democrats) or nuclear power (Republicans) would prefer the solutions > they happen to like anyway? --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
