On Jun 19, 5:02 pm, William M Connolley <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On Tue, 19 Jun 2007, Coby Beck wrote:
> >>http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_2.pdf
>
> >> Anyone believe it?
>
> > I believe it, at least the first few pages. Do you? And if not what
> > specifically and why?
>
> I don't think the implication of probable rapid sea-level rise by 2100, from
> analogies with the palaeo record, is supportable.
But that is not what he said. He said that the notion of ~800-year
lag in sea level rise is not supportable in the paleo record. I
think he's saying that you can't support any lag in the paleo record,
right?
Of course there is some lag. But, if he is right, you'd have to
estimate it from something other than the paleo record. You'd have to
estimate it from observations from a more recent period or from first
principles. Or take a shot at getting more data on one or more ice
age thaws.
Nowhere did he imply that rapid sea-level rise is supported by the
paleo record. I know that its easy to miss this since he talks about
what happen if the IPCC is wrong about an ~800-year lag. He sows
seeds of doubt about the IPCC take on rate sea level rise. Then he
speculates, spins a yarn, about what happened, and that yarn is not
supported (or refuted) by the evidence.
He is saying that the paleo record does not support any lag and the
physics of ice melting does not support a lag sufficient to get the
IPCC off thin ice.
He's trying knock down all the supports under your belief in a ~800-
year lag. And the IPCC's belief.
So, what is the support for the ~800-year lag notion? I there any?
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