On Wed, 20 Jun 2007, Tom Adams wrote: > "IPCC (2001, 2007) foresees twenty-first century sea-level rise of > only a fraction of > a metre with BAU global warming. Their analysis assumes an inertia for > ice > sheets that, we argue, is ... inconsistent > with observations of current ice sheet behaviour."
Observations, excluding the last few years, would tell us not to expect anything very exciting. Adding in the last few years could get you excitement, if you were to expect the acceleration in greenland to continue, as long as you discounted the most recent ones showing a decline. > "existing ice sheet models are missing > realistic (if any) representation of the physics of ice streams and > icequakes, > processes that are needed to obtain realistic nonlinear behaviour." > > "...the IPCC analyses and projections do not well account for the > nonlinear physics of wet ice sheet disintegration, ice streams and > eroding ice > shelves..." > > Do you believe that part? Those bits are missing, indeed. Which means we really don't know what effects they might have. And neither does Hansen. And, of course, the bulk of W Ant will not get wet. -W. > > > William M Connolley | [EMAIL PROTECTED] | http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/wmc/ Climate Modeller, British Antarctic Survey | 07985 935400 -- This message (and any attachments) is for the recipient only. NERC is subject to the Freedom of Information Act 2000 and the contents of this email and any reply you make may be disclosed by NERC unless it is exempt from release under the Act. Any material supplied to NERC may be stored in an electronic records management system. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
