This has been quite illuminating (for someone who doesn't have the strongest grasp on economics). Thanks to all.
As I see it, Climate Change is a long term global problem. Policy making, however, would seem in practice to have both geographic and temporal constraints. I appreciated Paul's explantion in terms of a two-person economy, and could relate to that if (say) I was Paul's next-door neighbour. But what if, instead of me, the second person was the great-grandchild of a (current) Zimbabwean subsistence farmer? Economic theory probably can make sense of a global future. However I think political economists think about their own patch, and how it will perform over the next one or two election periods. Am I being overly cynical? I hope so. Stewart. On Jul 11, 2:46 pm, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > James, > > I think you've misunderstood (and as a result misrepresented) what I > said. > > I said that people, and the natural systems that we depend on, are > heavily adapted to our current climate. I did not say, and wouldn't > say, that we are optimally adapted to the current climate. > > You also seem to misunderstand (and misrepresent) what Andrew Dessler > said on his blog. He said the current climate is optimal, not that > humans are optimally adapted to current climate. > > These are very different claims. The reason that current climate is > likely optimal for human society is because we, and the physical and > natural systems that we depend on, are so heavily adapted (though sub- > optimally) to that climate. > > In short, we're not optimally adapted to our current climate, but > we're better adapted to current conditions than we are to any other > climate. > > Paul > > On Jul 11, 12:00 am, James Annan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Zeke Hausfather wrote: > > > To be fair James, the "wibble" on Grist that humans (and most life on > > > earth) tends to be well-adapted to current climates, and that rapid > > > climate change would severely damage natural systems and impose > > > potentially large costs on the economy, has fairly strong support in > > > the literature. We can quibble over the term "optimal", but it seems > > > clear that under most scenarios anthropogenic warming will have > > > widespread negative effects vis-a-vis the status quo. > > > Well, I don't want to be too picky, but there is a huge spread of > > options covered by "well adapted", "adequately adapted", "optimally > > adapted". I don't think the last is defensible under any plausible > > definition of "optimally", but it was the specific (and wholly > > unsupported) claim of the linked Grist article, which was the only > > support cited for that aspect of the whole post. In fact the Grist > > article was even worse than that, because even if we were "optimally > > adapted" to the current climate (whatever that means) then it still does > > not follow that climate changes would bring a net loss, as previously > > discussed here: > > > <http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange/browse_thread/thread/de04...> > > > Indeed according to the economic analyses I've seen, modest climate > > change (roughly, the amount we are committed to at current GHG levels) > > will likely bring net benefits. > > > I don't dispute that rapid and substantial climate change may (indeed > > will, for some values of rapid and substantial) bring problems. But I'm > > concerned when I see scientists trotting out ideas such as "optimally > > adapted", as it suggests to me that they aren't even trying to get to > > grips with the issues in a reasonably objective manner. > > > James --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
