Will climate change be perceived as an underlying cause of these fires? I would like to think we (as a culture) could see a connection, if not a simplistic cause-and-effect, but I'm not sure that we do. I've been looking hard at the papers; drought has not been mentioned, except in backgrounders, as yet, and wind and temperature are mentioned only in passing. When it comes to cause, the focus to date has been on arson, with the possibility of terrorism.
Worse, until today none of the big papers in this country (NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, or LA Times) saw fit to actually send a reporter, so what may well be the worse natural disaster in the last hundred+ plus years of Greek history has been reported only by the wire services, which don't consider underlying causes at all. Maybe this is the nature of journalism, and ordinary people see a connection that reporters are reluctant to make in print without much more evidence. Or maybe a likely connection between these fires and global warming is being completely overlooked. On Aug 27, 2:54 pm, "Michael Tobis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I understand the weather has been bizarrely hot in the Balkans this > summer, so with the usual caveats, it's probably fair to say that > climate change may play a significant part, and it will probably be > perceived as such. > > Land management practices and arson may play significant roles. > > The main thing I have to say about it is this. > > If this event is as unprecedented as they say, though, it is almost > certainly anthropogenic and so should be counted among the sorts of > thing we need to take more account for in the future than we have in > the past. > > This idea that either such an event is or isn't mostly about > greenhouse gases seems to me secondary. We need to account for > increased population density and more variable conditions in our > planning. Problems are going to be much less separable in the future > than they have been in the past. It's all one big policy now. > > mt > > On 8/27/07, Kit Stolz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > Probably this question falls in the category of "unknowable" or > > "conditions not inconsistent with global warming, but impossible to > > show causal relationship." > > > Nonetheless I'd like to ask the experts here their view on the matter. > > Is there a link, do you think, between the "worst fires in living > > memory" in Greece and global warming? > > > I see at least one argument for: > > > Drought: Southern Greece especially has been suffering from a drought > > in recent years. According to a couple of studies I've seen, notably > > Thomas Reichler and a co-author, global warming is leading to an > > expansion of the tropics, which Reichler specifically linked to > > drought in the Mediterranean.http://unews.utah.edu/p/?r=051906-1 > > > I see one argument against: > > > Some of these fires were apparently started by arsonists. Regardless > > of intent, Jon Keeley has shown that in Southern California, the > > number of wildfires, even in the backcountry, tracks closely with the > > number of people living in the area. Presumably the population in > > Greece has been increasing, so perhaps that is as much an underlying > > cause as any changes brought about by GW? > > > Comments, please. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
