This is another "No SUVs on Mars" herring. Just because A is a claimed cause of B does not mean all incidents of B are claimed to be due to A.
Anyway... I don't think increased incidence of drought is considered a reliable prediction by IPCC. It happens I was just reading the USGCRP 2000 report on climate impacts on water resources. Peter Gleick (owner of globalchange.com, by the way) is the lead author. "Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Water Resources of the United States" Here's what that report said then: "Research results suggest that drought frequencies in some areas are likely to change. ... Models predict that the frequency and severity of droughts in some areas could increase as a result of regional decreases in total rainfall, more frequent dry spells, and higher evaporation. Models suggest with equal confidence that the frequency and severity of some regions would decrease as a result of regional increases in total rainfall and less frequent dry spells." Even if this becomes a more sturdy prediction, saying there have been droughts in the past is completely beside the point. mt PS: Fergus, it's time you learned about http://tinyurl.com On 9/10/07, Fergus <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > No droughts? What about this?: > http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html?map=%2Fwww%2Fdrought%2Fweb_pages%2Fdrought.map&program=%2Fcgi-bin%2Fmapserv&root=%2Fwww%2Fdrought2%2F&map_web_imagepath=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_imageurl=%2Ftmp%2F&map_web_template=%2Fdrought.html > sorry, that a hell of a line; look up 'global drought monitor'. > > > > On 10 Sep, 21:50, Tony Lee <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > My question is this: Is the relative lack of droughts an indication > > that the models are flawed? How to explain this dip in frequency? > > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
