It is possible we have "flipped a switch" in this regard but it's
possible we haven't. Making the case is harder because it's not a
switch anyone expected to see flipped.
I do think it's peculiar that Texas has suddenly become wet after
years of drought while the southeast has suddenly become spectacularly
dry, but it's not peculiar enough to connect it to climate change.
It's an event so far, not a pattern, and it doesn't correspond to any
actual model projections I've heard of.
I think really odd events are worth taking note of, but there is a
perception bias to keep track of as well. In the past we would have
been upset about the drought but not linked it to some global trend.
All that said, my own hunch is that interannual variability will
increase and this is the sort of thing we'll see. However, I don't
know how to test that hunch other than waiting a long time.
There's no reason I know of to start worrying that the southeast US
drought is permanent; Australia is perhaps another story.
mt
--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated
venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of
global environmental change.
Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the
submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not
gratuitously rude.
To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
For more options, visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
