On Sep 11, 8:52 pm, James Annan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Tom Adams wrote:
> > On Sep 11, 12:46 am, "Michael Tobis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >> Yes, that's the one, thanks.
>
> >> Since this isn't a public talk I won't identify the frequentist in
> >> question, but he was uncomfortable with the very idea of assigning a
> >> probability to an event that "either happened or didn't".
>
> > (Opps!) Unconfortable with the very idea of assigning a 5/6
> > probability to your survival while playing Russian Roulette once with
> > a six-shooter, are you?
>
> Of course a frequentist would be uncomfortable with that idea: their
> interpretation of probability does not apply to single events, only as
> the limiting frequency of an infinite number of "identical" experiments.
> Even this concept is rather hard to define, since in a deterministic
> world identical experiments should give identical results.
>
> (note that Michael was reporting someone else's views, not his own).
>
> James
Seems pragmatic to interpret the Russian Roulette case as 5/6 based on
a frequentist thought experiment. No?
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