Hi Zeke. This is covered in brief here:
http://fergusbrown.wordpress.com/2007/09/20/thermohaline-circulation-is-very-unlikely-to-shut-down/
Similar points to WC and MT, but note also, Broecker is reported as
being 'less sure' about the 'hosing' hypothesis than he was when he
first speculated it ten+ years ago. There are also some papers
suggesting the freshwater influx into the NAtl was staggered over
several smaller 'events.
There's also an interesting paper on the NWAC from Norway, which you
should look at; the last ten years observations showed a 10% slowing
but a simultaneous 1C warming of this current; an interesting finding.
You might also want to look at Curry & Mauritzen, WHOI 2005 (?) on the
subject. there's also a 2006 paper done by someone at the MetO or the
Tyndall - can't remember which.
One correction I am fairly sure of; you say 'the THC is likely to slow
down of the course of centuries'; current projections are for this
century, all the models have a slowdown, but the variability goes from
0-50%, and the time period is slightly inconsistent.
There's also the interesting model result which show a 'switch' rather
than a 'shutdown', where, under some 'hosing' runs in simplified
models, the current goes straight up the US Coast, turns right at
Labrador, then moves past Iceland to the GIS/ Nordic Sea area, where
it turns South.
On the media representation, as well as the 'ice age' stuff, which is
damaging enough, there's also the risk that parochial Northern
European media might think of the consequences of a slowdown purely in
terms such as 'no Mediterranean climate for Cornwall', and the like.
Given how important the current and its associated heat transfer is
for the entire area from West Africa up to the Kara Sea, and how
little the impacts are really understood, the seriousness of even a
slowdown is probably more about precip/evap shifts than changes in
'local' climates.
Hope you don't mind all the lecture notes...
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