I suggested that John Roemer and his colleagues post here after a
meeting with them in which I was unable to answer all of their
questions. Their original aim was to include a simple equation
relating emissions to atmospheric concentrations (and associated
warming) as a proxy for general environmental quality as part of an
intergenerational welfare optimization exercise (or, to be more
precise, a non-utilitarian calculation of a "sustainable" long-term
welfare level). As I pointed out, however, this is easier said than
done, as its very difficult to model a simple relationship between
emissions trajectories and atmospheric concentrations given
uncertainties in feedbacks and sink responses.
While using an "off the shelf" model like the SRES would be
convenient, I was under the impression that they were looking more at
policy-forced outcomes rather than business as usual scenarios (e.g.
the traditional SRES). While one could use something like A1T as a
proxy for a robust policy, they were also looking for some rather
radical stabilization scenarios (e.g. stabilization by 2050) that fall
outside the SRES range.
Does anyone know of some good mitigation scenario modeling done for,
say, the AR4 WGIII report that might be useful?
-Zeke
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