Eric, I don't disagree that we as a whole should be focused on current issues in climate, but running EBMs over long periods appears to be what these particular scientists do. I don't know if we should get up in arms over their work. We cannot expect every scientist to be working on the same issue, as important as it is.
I think what they've done is a valuable exercise, with the caveats they've taken care to point out. The actual letter to be published in Nature actually has some nice details. But, even though as press such as New Scientist has to find some way to spice it up (see: title), this isn't something we need to worry about right now, though it is a neat study. Jason Patton On Thu, Nov 13, 2008 at 3:45 PM, Eric Swanson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Also note the comment in the article: > > "In the model runs best resembling actual climate history, the switch > to a long-lasting ice age happened as early as 10,000 to 100,000 years > from now. However, Crowley stresses that not too much confidence can > be placed on the results of single runs out of many." > > The CO2 which is now being dumped into the atmosphere would likely be > taken up by the oceans long before the 10,000 year beginning of this > postulated next ice age. As things are going, most of the fossil > fuels will be burnt before the end of this century. > > I'm sorry to say, I think there's still a lot to learn about climate. > And, the focus should really be on the next couple of centuries, not > 10,000 year runs with a simplified model. > > E. S. > ------------------- > Alexandre wrote: >> "Humans may have prevented super ice age" is the title of an article >> from New Scientist. According to this article, some researchers argue >> that "(b)efore we started pumping massive amounts of carbon dioxide >> into the atmosphere, the planet was on the brink of entering a semi- >> permanent ice age". Our CO2 emissions may have preventeda long lasting >> ice age. The article states that "none of the researchers contacted by >> New Scientist thought the model's predictions are worth taking >> seriously". However, the idea that something like this might have >> happened is interesting. >> http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16026-humans-may-have-prevented-super-ice-age.html >> Alexandre Couto de Andrade > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
