On Nov 19, 4:20 am, Alastair <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> I have thought for a long time that forecasts of 50% rain were
> rubbish, no matter how complicated the calculations. Weather is
> chaotic so it cannot be precisely calculated. But the whole matter is
> more complicated than that.
I think you would be hard pressed to construct a prediction of an
observation that did not admit to any uncertainty whatsoever. And that
is the case irrespective of chaos.
> The problem is that most scientists are not thinking carefully about
> why the models fail. They are assuming that because the models
> predict global warming and that global warming is happening then the
> models are correct. But if you think carefully that does not follow.
I have a sneaking suspicion that at least some scientists may have
considered the possibility :-)
James
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