Alastair wrote:
>
> The answer to that rhetorical question is that by arguing about these
> matters, I do learn from the research that is necessary. Karl
> Popper's ideas on "Falsifiability" are summarised here:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsificationism
> where it states "Some philosophers and scientists, most notably Karl
> Popper, have asserted that a hypothesis, proposition, or theory is
> scientific only if it is falsifiable."
Alastair,
I think you (and many others, perhaps including Popper) are rather too
literal on this. Many statements and predictions arising from the
scientific process are unfalsifiable, even if there really is some valid
scientific truth underlying them. One favourite example of mine is a
weather forecast of the form "70% probability of rain tomorrow". Is it
intrinsically unscientific to make such a forecast, since no event
(rain/no rain) will falsify it? Note further that if someone else says
"50% probability of rain tomorrow" then NEITHER of these predictions is
falsifiable and indeed both forecasts might well arise from reliable and
well-calibrated prediction systems.
Going back to the paper in question, although a specific claim about
what might have happened in the event of some different
historical/current conditions is indeed itself strictly unfalsifiable,
really what is being proposed is a hypothesis about the Earth's
behaviour that may be supported or contradicted by all sorts of
plausible analyses and observations in the future. Thus, it is entirely
scientific in nature.
At least, that is how I imagine most scientists would view the situation
were they to think about it carefully (which some may not have done).
James
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