Dear Igor, Not read the study just the usual posting - http://www.gizmag.com/mini-ice-age-hit-in-months/13489/. There was about a 20 degree temp change in Greenland between the younger Dryas and now. I didn't say globally - but very rapid change apparently happened in Ireland. This would be quite dramatic I'm sure you would agree.
There is Latif, Keeleyside, Tsonis and Swanson as far as I know discussing ocean changes (really only Tsonis and Swanson specifically as a complex system)- no one is predicting anything - just that non warming for another decade or 2 is a possibility because these seem to be multidecadal changes. Anthropogenic forcing adds a new source of climate instability however. You should look at the limits to predictability of complex systems for instance in the McWilliam paper. There is a whole field of science on climate and complexity - see for instance some of the articles at the Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics - there are a few resources I have listed at - http://www.earthandocean.robertellison.com.au/ I came across an aphorism form Neils Bohr - one of the original quantum physicists. 'Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.' Most people have been thinking about climate as ordered forcing by greenhouse gases on one side or natural climate cycles that come and go like the seasons on the other. Looking instead at the behaviour of the total system, rather than what drives it, seems to reveal some very odd things. Climate is a cascade of powerful systems - ice, cloud, dust, oceans, heat transport, atmosphere, biology - that is characterised by abrupt, rapid and sometimes extreme climate change. Classic behaviour of a dynamic and complex system in chaos theory. Chaos theory is a collection of very esoteric concepts - phase space, strange attractors, bifurcation and Lyapunov exponents to name a few. Climate is a choatic system and it is free to jump around like a spinning top on a rough surface - limitied only by the strange attractor phase space topography. (I am just going to shut up about it now.) 10 degree cooling in months to years, if only in some locations, indeed seems possible. I have to admit I was much more sanguine about climate change when I thought there were climate cycles. Cheers Robert On Feb 2, 10:35 am, Igor Samoylenko <[email protected]> wrote: > Robert, > > You said: > > > What does this mean for the future? Don’t look at me – I think we are on > > the extreme warm climate ‘strange attractor.’ Much more likely to shift to > > cooler mode. As much as a 10 degree cooling in a couple of months to years is possible. > > 10 degrees Celsius globally? Twice as much as the full transition to a > glacial maximum with half of the planet covered in ice? In a couple of months > or years? > > Am I missing something? > > In any case, can you provide a concise outline of the evidence to support > this claim - all the relevant evidence please? You said many things and > quoted many papers but as far as I can see the only thing that you cited so > far that provides direct support for this cooling "phase" over the next > decade or so is Tsonis and Swanson's work. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, > moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy > dimensions of global environmental change. > > Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the > submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not > gratuitously rude. > > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > > For more options, visit this group > athttp://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
