This
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/unforced-variations-3/comment-page-12/#comment-168530
came up on the "Swedish" thread, but as the reply
feature is missing, I'll answer Robert by starting a
new thread.
The formula used is quite clearly
AE(d) = k(lnCO2(d-1) - lnCO2(1870s)) - GTA(1880s)
but unfortunately the obvious right parenthesis was
missing. Now the conversion factor k is not that
orignally used by Arrhenius but is determined by the
best fit to the data, as is later explained in the link.
The Arrhenius formula is still in use as quite a decent
approximation; see the appropriate section of IPCC AR4.
As for abrupt behavior, that is seen in Greenland
ice cores, representation of the northern North
Atlantic due to abrupt changes to those massive
portions of the cryosphere which we no longer
have with us.
As for all othr forcings, in the notes I explained
why those can be ignored for the data of the
last 13 decades; all such, positive and negative,
cancel each other.
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