Oilseeds Likely To Plunge On Weak Global Cues 31-May-2012 09:27 The CBOT July Soybeans finished down 8 1/2 at 1378 1/4, 16 1/4 off the high and 14 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 3 1/4 at 1296 3/4. This was 15 1/2 up from the low and 5 1/4 off the high. July Soymeal closed down 2.5 at 410.0. This was 5.3 up from the low and 5.0 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.45 at 49.72, 0.64 off the high and 0.32 up from the low. November soybeans spent much of the day lower on the session but saw late buying support on longer-term weather uncertainties to support the market late in the session. July soybeans saw a strong recovery off of the mid-session lows but still closed moderately lower on the day. Outside market forces were consider very negative and this helped to spark long liquidation selling in commodity markets; especially markets like soybeans where fund traders hold a hefty net long positions. European economic woes and a surge in the US dollar to the highest level since August 30th of 2010 has added to the risk off attitude. While traders see dry weather stress as an issue, talk of good rains this week in the Midwest and more rain for next week before a ridging pattern moves in has kept weather as a negative force. Confirmation that China is NOT planning another major stimulus program was also seen as a negative factor for the global economy. Weakness in the other grains and other commodity markets like crude oil and gold added to the negative tone. The weekly progress report showed a record fast planting pace with 89% of the crop planted compared to 76% last week and 48% last year.
The BMD CPO August contract currently quote at 3096, down MYR 15 per tonne after moving in the range of MYR 3100-3083 per tonne. The NCDEX RSO June delivery ended the last day down by Rs 2.25 or 0.31% at Rs 734.80 after moving in the range of Rs 738.65-732.70 per 10 kg. Domestic Oilseeds complex is expected to trade lower on the back of weak global cues. Technically, the June RSO is likely to find support a On Tue, May 29, 2012 at 12:07 PM, karishma suvarna < [email protected]> wrote: > Chinese coal, iron ore defaults prompt mystery > > Over the last two weeks, Chinese consumers of thermal coal and iron ore > have been defaulting on their contracts, sending prices sharply down. > > The reason behind the cancellations is a hotly debated topic in the > physical commodities market. > > Analysts and traders have put forward two radically different theories - > with almost opposite implications to global commodities markets: either > Chinese buyers do not need the raw materials because weak demand and high > inventories - a bearish scenario - or they need the shipments, but they are > defaulting to take advantage of falling prices and they plan to rebook at a > lower costs - neutral to bullish. > > The market has experienced both hypotheses at work: after the start of the > global financial > crisis<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/global-exchange/financial-times/chinese-coal-iron-ore-defaults-prompt-mystery/article2445084/?utm_source=digest-en-coal-120528&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest#> > of > 2008, Chinese buyers defaulted en masse as demand vanished. > > But in 2010, when fears about the euro zone sent prices down, Chinese > customers defaulted on their shipments, only to rebook their cargoes > shortly after at much lower prices. > > Commodities traders tell me that probably both theories are at play. > > Chinese commodities demand is lacklustre and inventories are > indeed<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/global-exchange/financial-times/chinese-coal-iron-ore-defaults-prompt-mystery/article2445084/?utm_source=digest-en-coal-120528&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest#> > high. > Electricity production, a proxy for thermal coal needs, rose only 0.7 per > cent last month, a large slowdown from double digit figures in 2011 and > earlier this year. > > Moreover, thermal coal stockpiles at Chinese utilities rose last week to > the equivalent of 26 days of consumption, up 62.5 per cent from 16 days in > the same period of a year ago, according to the China Coal Transport and > Distribution Association. > > But the wave of defaults only started after iron ore and - particularly - > thermal coal prices fell about 10 per cent, breaking key resistance levels. > > The benchmark iron ore contract - 62 per cent iron content - fell last > week in Singapore to $130.5 a tonne, the lowest since early November 2011. > > Thermal coal prices in the Australian port of Newcastle, the benchmark for > Asia, fell to $93.5 a tonne, the lowest since October 2010. > > The price drop left some Chinese domestic traders, who usually do not > hedge the price risk of coal and iron ore, suffering big losses. That is > when the chain of deferrals and defaults gained pace, with a dozen cargoes > left in the water. > > Commodities traders say this week will be critical for sentiment: if > Chinese buyers take the defaulted cargoes - at a lower price after > negotiations. > > The mood could improve if the wave of defaults is a reaction to the price > fall rather than a genuine fall in demand. > > But if price negotiations do not reach a quick conclusion and Chinese > buyers continue to say that they do not need the material, the market could > take another hit. > > Moreover, the amount of distressed cargoes looking for an owner in the > Asia-Pacific market is quite significant, raising the prospect of some > traders executing fire-sales. > > On Fri, May 18, 2012 at 12:03 PM, mahesh i. shah < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> Thanks for the update.. >> >> Rgds. >> >> On Fri, May 18, 2012 at 11:52 AM, RAJESH DESAI <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> Hi Mahesh, >>> >>> Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) is looking at cutting production of >>> ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) at its 240,000 tonne/year EVA/low density >>> polyethylene >>> >>> >>> On Fri, May 18, 2012 at 11:44 AM, mahesh i. shah < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Any update on EVA (*Ethylene vinyl acetate)* prices and its >>>> outlook..... >>>> >>>> Rgds. >>>> >>>> On Fri, May 18, 2012 at 11:39 AM, RAJESH DESAI >>>> <[email protected]>wrote: >>>> >>>>> SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asia’s caustic >>>>> soda<http://www.icis.com/chemicals/caustic-soda/> >>>>> prices are expected to remain robust in the near term, supported by >>>>> restricted supply and persistently low by-product chlorine prices, >>>>> industry >>>>> sources said on Thursday. >>>>> >>>>> Spot prices were last assessed by ICIS at $455-460/dry metric tonne >>>>> (dmt) (€359.5-363.4/dmt) FOB (free on board) NE (northeast) Asia on >>>>> 11 May, hitting their highest level for 2012, after rising by $40-45/dmt >>>>> from $410-420/dmt FOB NE Asia on 16 March. >>>>> >>>>> Several chlor-alkali producers in China are operating their plants at >>>>> reduced rates to balance chlorine production in the midst of low chlorine >>>>> prices and the dismal condition in the chlorine-derivatives market, >>>>> leading >>>>> to tight availability of caustic soda cargoes for the spot market. >>>>> >>>>> “We have very limited cargo to export because of our low operating >>>>> rate of around 50%,” a chlor-alkali producer in China said. >>>>> >>>>> The average operating rate of caustic soda plants in China is >>>>> estimated to be at around 60-70% at the moment, according to a trader >>>>> based >>>>> in China. >>>>> >>>>> Chinese chlor-alkali producers are expected to maintain their >>>>> productions at lower levels as there is no anticipated uptick in the >>>>> chlorine-derivatives segment, market sources said. >>>>> >>>>> Domestic chlorine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were assessed at >>>>> yuan (CNY) 50-150/tonne (CNY 7.91-23.7/tonne) EXWH (ex-warehouse) and >>>>> CNY100-200/tonne EXWH, respectively, on 10 May, data from Chemease, an >>>>> ICIS >>>>> service in China, shows. >>>>> >>>>> “Buying chlorine now is cheaper than producing it,” a China-based >>>>> trader said. >>>>> >>>>> Furthermore, demand from chlorine’s downstream markets such as polyvinyl >>>>> chloride <http://www.icis.com/chemicals/polyvinyl-chloride/>, methylene >>>>> chloride <http://www.icis.com/chemicals/methylene-chloride/>, >>>>> chloroform and >>>>> epichlorohydrin<http://www.icis.com/chemicals/epichlorohydrin/> >>>>> are in a bearish state, the trader added. >>>>> >>>>> As a result, chlor-alkali producers raised their caustic soda offers >>>>> to fetch higher prices to protect their margins, market sources said. >>>>> >>>>> “We cannot see any chance of caustic soda prices going down as >>>>> chlorine price is still low and supply is limited because of low operating >>>>> rates,” another trader said. >>>>> >>>>> In addition to the reduced supply from China, caustic soda producers >>>>> in Taiwan and Korea are unlikely to participate actively in the spot >>>>> market in the near future as they are focusing on supplies to their >>>>> respective domestic markets as well as contractual commitments. Thus, >>>>> China is left as the main provider of spot parcels from northeast Asia >>>>> for the time being, market sources said. >>>>> >>>>> In Japan, producers are currently not in a position to offer spot >>>>> materials amid ongoing and upcoming plant turnarounds at several >>>>> chlor-alkali facilities that will last until mid-June. >>>>> >>>>> “We may consider exporting on a spot basis after our maintenance in >>>>> the second half of June,” a producer in Japan said. >>>>> >>>>> Northeast Asia is a major exporter of caustic soda and has an >>>>> estimated capacity of close to 39m dmt, which is almost half of the global >>>>> capacity, industry sources said. >>>>> >>>>> China is the biggest caustic soda producer globally, with a capacity >>>>> that reached 32m dmt in 2011, according to data from Chemease. >>>>> >>>>> Despite the bullish sentiment among suppliers, most buyers held the >>>>> opinion that the high caustic soda prices are not sustainable as there is >>>>> no firm fundamental that is supporting prices. >>>>> >>>>> “Caustic soda demand is not great so I feel that the high prices are >>>>> artificial,” a buyer in southeast Asiasaid. >>>>> >>>>> There is no fundamental shift in demand so caustic soda prices will go >>>>> down eventually when buyers start cutting back on their own production >>>>> because they cannot afford to buy caustic at such high prices, another >>>>> buyer in southeast Asia said. >>>>> >>>>> “The final product prices are not going up at all so margin is being >>>>> squeezed as the caustic soda buyers are unable to pass on the higher costs >>>>> to their end-users,” the buyer added. >>>>> >>>>> The main uses of caustic soda are in the manufacture of alumina, pulp >>>>> and paper, soap and detergents, textiles as well as organic and inorganic >>>>> chemical production. Other applications include water treatment, metal >>>>> processing, mining and glass making. >>>>> >>>>> ($1 = €0.79, $1 = CNY6.32) >>>>> >>>>> By: Feliana Widjaja <[email protected]> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, May 15, 2012 at 5:18 PM, Mohan Vajpayee < >>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> But its good news for mfgr.companies. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Tue, May 15, 2012 at 4:52 PM, kuku manmohan < >>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> This means More bad news for investors in RIL >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Tue, May 15, 2012 at 3:52 PM, RAJESH DESAI >>>>>>> <[email protected]>wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Global spot propylene costs move further south >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Spot propylene costs continued to lose noticeable ground in global >>>>>>>> markets as energy and naphtha markets maintained their bearish trend >>>>>>>> during >>>>>>>> the course of the past week. Consecutive decreases in upstream costs >>>>>>>> combined with poor downstream demand led to expectations of further >>>>>>>> falls >>>>>>>> while causing an increasing number of buyers to step out from the >>>>>>>> market. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> NYMEX crude futures contracts for June delivery declined more than >>>>>>>> $11/barrel since May started, with $1.81/barrel of this drop occurring >>>>>>>> during the past week. Similarly, ICE June Brent crude prices fell more >>>>>>>> than >>>>>>>> $8/barrel since the start of this month, while they lost around >>>>>>>> $1/barrel >>>>>>>> during last week. Facing downwards pressure from the persistently >>>>>>>> bearish >>>>>>>> energy complex, spot naphtha markets inevitably posted additional drops >>>>>>>> over the week. In Asia, spot values plummeted $40/ton on a CFR Japan >>>>>>>> basis >>>>>>>> week over week, while prices lost another $15/ton in Europe on CIF NWE >>>>>>>> basis. When compared to the end of April, the most recent figures >>>>>>>> represented a decrease of $90/ton in both regions. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> In Europe, despite some production cutbacks, spot propylene prices >>>>>>>> plunged €120/ton on FD NWE basis during last week in tandem with >>>>>>>> relentless >>>>>>>> drops in naphtha feedstock costs and muted buying interest from the >>>>>>>> downstream PP market. According to market sources, naphtha supply >>>>>>>> loosened >>>>>>>> as the industry focused on lower cost feedstock, propane, and due to >>>>>>>> restarting refineries. Now that spot propylene prices fell by €130/ton >>>>>>>> since early May, June monomer contracts in the region are expected to >>>>>>>> settle lower than May levels. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> In Asia, spot propylene offers decreased by $110/ton on FOB South >>>>>>>> Korea basis compared to the previous week, while the cumulative drop >>>>>>>> with >>>>>>>> respect to early May reached $150/ton. Seeing steep losses in the last >>>>>>>> few >>>>>>>> weeks, most buyers preferred to follow a “wait and see” policy in a >>>>>>>> bid to >>>>>>>> see a clearer market scene for the coming weeks. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> In the US, spot polymer grade propylene prices recorded a sharp >>>>>>>> decrease of 9 cents/lb ($198/ton) on DLVD USG basis last week in the >>>>>>>> midst >>>>>>>> of a lack of healthy demand and retreating upstream costs. The recent >>>>>>>> levels represent a massive fall of 15.75 cents /lb ($347/ton) with >>>>>>>> respect >>>>>>>> to the end of April. In contrast to initial flat nominations for June, >>>>>>>> other contract announcements for polymer grade propylene emerged with >>>>>>>> drops >>>>>>>> between 3 cents/lb ($66/ton) to 10 cents/lb ($220/ton). >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>> CA. Rajesh Desai >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> Manmohan Tandan >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> CA. Rajesh Desai >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> CA. Rajesh Desai >>> >>> >> > > > -- > > Karishma Suvarna > > -- CA. Rajesh Desai -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
