International veg oil markets drifted sharply lower, before stating a late week recovery in an action packed trading episode this week. Despite a shortened week with Indian markets closed for a national holiday on Tuesday and China celebrating week long National Day and Autumn festival, prices did register double digit losses ranging from 6-13% on wow basis. Earlier in the week, BMD CPO futures nose-dived to their lowest in more than 3 years on Tuesday, as slowing demand from Asia reflected by the poor export performance from the cargo surveyors SGS and Intertek activated panic selling. Progressing US soy harvest also raised fears that the upcoming USDA supply-demand report could show a marked rise in production estimates. Additionally, industry talks that CPO stocks could easily hit 2.5mn tons, with October shaping up to be a peak production month also dampened the sentiment. At the US front, fast paced harvest remained as the major dampener for the soy complex as it enhanced the crop prospects which were hitherto expected to be a extremely poor. The later half of the week witnessed high volatility amid a smart bounce back as short covering and on-dip buying emerged as prices (BMD) hit multi year low. Also, with the Malaysian plantation minister assuring to raise duty free export quota, overall sentiment pepped up. However, Indian markets were repeatedly hampered by a stronger rupee that fell below 52, after almost 7 months.
Oilseed and edible oil markets have been under persistent pressure in recent times amid a slew of bearish overtures from the global as well as domestic front. Concerns of rising Malaysian palm oil stock piles (to record high 2.5mn tons) as export falter, faster US soybean harvest progress with almost 50% completion rate, higher Indian soy crop prospects that would surpass 12.2mn tons and a sharply stronger Rs/USD keep the sentiment depressed. However, given the magnitude of the fall which is close to 20% within a span of 1 week, a technical bounce back cannot be ruled out. Already, Malaysian palm futures which made a low of MYR2,230 are now trading above MYR2,400 and US soy oil futures are holding the psychological support of 50cents/Lbs. Furthermore, the seasonal Kharif harvest pressure is seen to have been accommodated in the recent price fall. From the demand side, festive demand for the next 1-2 months could offer downside threshold for the prices. However, a persistent rise in the Rs/USD might cap the upside potential in edible oils. The fact that a plethora of economic reforms are at the doorstep for clearance (though only a cabinet approval has been granted, awaiting the passing of the bill / legislation), rupee could show extend its strength in the short run. Soy oil prices find support at Rs593 and resistance at Rs625. Trend wise, prices are on a short term recovery mode, while medium term prospects are tied to the ability of the prices to hold on to the recent lows. The reaction of Chinese markets, when trading reopens on October 8 after a three-day holiday, will play a big part in whether Malaysian palm oil futures can sustain a bounce from 3 year lows. Many industry experts remain skeptical over whether the vegetable oil can recover in the face of rising Malaysian inventories, swollen by soft export demand at a time when production is around its seasonal high. The trend of output outpacing exports will "continue through the fourth quarter, keeping inventory levels above 2mn tons is what the market mood reflects. Yet another crucial factor is the duty free export quota which the Malaysian government fixes on an annual basis. For 2012, it as fixed at 3.5mn tons and so far there hasn’t been any official clue as to the exhaustion of the quota. Therefore, the focus now is, in case the quota has been fully utilized, then there would be few takers for the fresh exports as new supplies flood the markets with peak oil yields. In this regard, the petition by plantations minister over increasing the free export quota becomes the key to determine the medium term fundamentals. Particularly, with Indonesia slashing its export taxes progressively on a mom basis, Malaysia needs to retaliate with some policy decision soon. Broadly, edible oil markets are poised for a modest recovery (which is already underway), following consecutive weeks of dramatic decline. The ability of the recovery to turn into a gradual positive tone vests with the strength in the sentiment to hold on to the recent lows which are ‘valuable’ long term levels. However, considering the upcoming new crop supplies in China, US and India, notable recovery seems to be far fetched. sOURCE - IIFL -- CA. Rajesh Desai -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
