OK, just so I know the rules - how many >$1k/year, non-non-profit society 
journals not in larger packages do I need to find?

Of course none of these criteria were in the survey - we appear to be inventing 
post-hoc justifications.

David



On 18 Oct 2015, at 20:49, Dana Roth <[email protected]> wrote:

> There could be a problem trying to extrapolate from unverified data ... 
> 
> I suspect that many of the 'freely available after 6 months' journals are 
> either very low cost <$1K/year, non-profit society journals, journals in a 
> larger package, or a combination of these.
> 
> Perhaps David would take a look the 30 titles and provide some additional 
> data?
> 
> Dana L. Roth
> Millikan Library / Caltech 1-32
> 1200 E. California Blvd. Pasadena, CA 91125
> 626-395-6423 fax 626-792-7540
> [email protected]
> http://library.caltech.edu/collections/chemistry.htm
> ________________________________________
> From: [email protected] [[email protected]] on behalf of David 
> Prosser [[email protected]]
> Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2015 5:38 AM
> To: Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci)
> Subject: [GOAL] Re: ?spam? Re: BLOG: Unlocking Research 'Half-life is half 
> the story'
> 
> It is well known that what people do and what they say they will do can be 
> different.  If you find that real-life behaviour and reported behaviour are 
> different then you have to look at where the problems lie with the surveys.
> 
> There are a number of journals that make papers freely available in less than 
> 12 months.  For example, almost 30 journals hosted by HighWire make papers 
> freely available after 6 months:
> 
> http://highwire.stanford.edu/lists/freeart.dtl
> 
> If it was true that almost half of subscribers will cancel if the embargo is 
> less than 12 months then how are these 6-month journals surviving?  Their 
> subscription base should be massively reduced.  If they really are 
> haemorrhaging subscribers surely we would now about it.
> 
> So we have surveys telling us one thing, reality telling us something else.  
> Alicia would have us focus on the surveys and ignore reality.  I would rather 
> we worked with real behaviour.
> 
> David
> 
> 
> On 16 Oct 2015, at 16:30, Wise, Alicia (ELS-OXF) 
> <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
> 
> Hi Danny –
> 
> Publishers support sustainable approaches to Green OA as well as Gold OA – 
> indeed that was the focus of the panel discussion at the STM conference.
> 
> For articles that are published under the subscription business model, when 
> and how they are made available for free (on a wide array of platforms – 
> institutional repositories are one important example of these platforms) does 
> make a difference.  In my experience publishers are both evidence-based and 
> thoughtful about how they set embargo periods and so forth.
> 
> The evidence that is factored into decision-making currently includes:
> 
> 
> 1. Usage Evidence
> 
> 
> 
> In 2014 Phil Davis published a study commissioned by the Association of 
> American Publishers which demonstrates that journal article usage varies 
> widely within and across disciplines, and that only 3% of of journals have 
> half-lives of 12 months or less. Health sciences articles have the shortest 
> median half-life of the journals analyzed, but still more than 50% of health 
> science journals have usage half-lives longer than 24 months. In fields with 
> the longest usage half-lives, including mathematics and the humanities, more 
> than 50% of the journals have usage half-lives longer than 48 months. See 
> http://publishers.org/sites/default/files/uploads/PSP/journalusagehalflife.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> 2. Evidence for the link between embargos, usage and cancellations
> 
> 
> 
> A 2012 study by ALPSP was a simple one-question survey: "If the (majority of) 
> content of research journals was freely available within 6 months of 
> publication, would you continue to subscribe?" The results “indicate that 
> only 56% of those subscribing to journals in the STM field would definitely 
> continue to subscribe. In AHSS, this drops to just 35%. See 
> http://www.alpsp.org/ebusiness/AboutALPSP/ALPSPStatements/Statementdetails.aspx?ID=407
>   This 2012 study builds on earlier, more nuanced, studies undertaken for 
> ALPSP in 2009 and 2006. The 2009 ALPSP study (see the next to last bullet) 
> found that "overall usage" is the prime factor that librarians use in making 
> cancellation decisions. The 2006 ALPSP study (see points 7 and 8) found that 
> "the length of any embargo" would be the most important factor in making 
> cancellation decisions.
> 
> 
> 
> A 2006 PRC study (see pages 1-3) shows that a significant number of 
> librarians are likely to substitute green OA materials for subscribed 
> resources, given certain levels of reliability, peer review and currency of 
> the information available. With a 24 month embargo, 50% of librarians would 
> use the green OA material over paying for subscriptions, and 70% would use 
> the green OA material if it is available after 6 months. See 
> http://publishingresearchconsortium.com/index.php/115-prc-projects/research-reports/self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-research-report/145-self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-co-existence-or-competition-an-international-survey-of-librarians-preferences
> 
> 
> 
> 3. Experiences of other journals
> 
> 
> 
> For example, the Journal of Clinical Investigation which went open access 
> with a 0 month embargo in 1996 and lost c. 40% of institutional subscriptions 
> over time. The journal was forced to return to the subscription model in 
> 2009, see http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/02/26/end-of-free-access/  
> Other examples that spring to mind are the Annals of Mathematics, the Journal 
> of Dental Research, the American Journal of Pathology, and Genetics.
> 
> With kind wishes,
> Alicia
> 
> Dr Alicia Wise
> Director of Access and Policy
> Elsevier I The Boulevard I Langford Lane I Kidlington I Oxford I OX5 1GB
> M: +44 (0) 7823 536 826 I E: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>
> Twitter: @wisealic
> 
> 
> From: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> 
> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Danny Kingsley
> Sent: 16 October 2015 12:29
> To: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>
> Subject: [GOAL] BLOG: Unlocking Research 'Half-life is half the story'
> 
> <apologies for cross posting>
> 
> Hello all,
> 
> You may be interested in the latest Unlocking Research blog: 'Half-life is 
> half the story' https://unlockingresearch.blog.lib.cam.ac.uk/?p=331
> 
> <snip>
> 
> 
> 
> This week the STM Frankfurt 
> Conference<http://www.stm-assoc.org/events/frankfurt-conference-2015/> was 
> told that a shift away from gold Open Access towards green would mean some 
> publishers would not be ‘viable’ according to a story in The 
> Bookseller<http://www.thebookseller.com/news/green-oa-will-hit-publishers-314667>.
>  The argument was that support for green OA in the US and China would mean 
> some publishers will collapse and the community will ‘regret it’.
> 
> It is not surprising that the publishing industry is worried about a move 
> away from gold OA policies. They have proved extraordinarily lucrative in the 
> UK with Wiley and Elsevier each pocketing an extra £2 
> million<https://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/publishers-share-10m-in-apc-payments/2019685.article>
>  thanks to the RCUK block grant funds to support the RCUK policy on Open 
> Access<http://www.rcuk.ac.uk/research/openaccess/>.
> 
> But let’s get something straight. There is no evidence that permitting 
> researchers to make a copy of their work available in a repository results in 
> journal subscriptions being cancelled. None.
> </snip>
> 
> --
> 
> Dr Danny Kingsley
> 
> Head of Scholarly Communications
> 
> Cambridge University Library
> 
> West Road, Cambridge CB39DR
> 
> P: +44 (0) 1223 747 437
> 
> M: +44 (0) 7711 500 564
> 
> E: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>
> 
> T: @dannykay68
> 
> ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3636-5939
> 
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> 
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