Marc’s post reminds me that there was the EC-funded, STM-run PEER project that 
attempted to do exactly this comparison:

http://www.stm-assoc.org/public-affairs/resources/peer/

One of the aims of PEER was to discover the effect of Green OA on journal 
viability - for the journals that took part there were no negative effects on 
their viability.

David

On 22 Oct 2015, at 13:50, Couture Marc 
<marc.cout...@teluq.ca<mailto:marc.cout...@teluq.ca>> wrote:

Hi all,

What we would like to see here as evidence is something like what is being done 
about open access to scholarly monographs: rigorous studies, involving control 
groups and close monitoring, testing the effect of making a toll-free copy 
available.

I’m aware of two such studies, both made as part of the OAPEN initiative: one 
in the Netherlands and one in the UK (still ongoing, but preliminary results 
have been released).

Interestingly, both found no measurable effect of toll-free availability on the 
sales. The only “effect” of toll-free access is a tremendous increase of use, 
as measured by summing the sales and the (much more numerous) downloads.

Here also, fears that scholarly publishing is incompatible, or endangered by OA 
were, and still are, regularly aired.

It’s possible that things are not the same for journal publishing. But, pending 
reliable results, we simply don’t know, and predictions as to a loss of 
subscriptions are nothing but speculation (or hypotheses).

For details: 
http://www.oapen.nl/images/attachments/article/58/OAPEN-NL-final-report.pdf  
and 
http://openaccess.ox.ac.uk/wp-uploads/2014/07/JACKSON-Oxford-OA-Monographs-June-2014.pdf

Marc Couture


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