If the question is ‘Is there any evidence showing a correlation between embargo length and subscription cancellations?’ then the answer is clearly ‘no’.
If the question is ‘Is there a disconnect between library behaviour and survey results?’ then the answer is clearly ‘yes’. Yes different journals have different usage half-lives and yes journal usage is a factor in libraries’ purchasing decisions but nobody has shown any evidence that links usage, half-lives, and cancellations. This despite the ten years of experience of setting embargoes that Alicia tells us about - if they evidence exists then show it to us. Let’s remind ourselves of how this discussion started - Danny wrote 'There is no evidence that permitting researchers to make a copy of their work available in a repository results in journal subscriptions being cancelled. None.’ Despite Alicia’s intervention that statement still stands. David On 21 Oct 2015, at 16:05, Wise, Alicia (ELS-OXF) <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi there - > > Great to see engagement on this topic which is of shared strategic interest > for librarians and publishers! My original posting was to push back on the > idea that there is 'no evidence', and I'm pleased to see acknowledgment that > there is evidence and some discussion about whether or not it is sufficient > or if more is needed. > > Publishers, including Elsevier, have c. 20 years of usage data and c. 10 > years of experience of setting embargos and looking at the impact of various > sharing behaviors. We're not guessing or crying wolf or 'ignoring reality' > when we set embargo periods. Some impacts of short embargos can take time to > be felt. An interesting perspective on why that might be the cases is > implicit in a study the AAP commissioned from Phil Davis. You can see the > full study for yourself at > http://publishers.org/sites/default/files/uploads/PSP/journalusagehalflife.pdf > but let me quote the first two sentences of the abstract for everyone here: > "An analysis of article downloads from 2,812 academic and professional > journals published by 13 presses in the sciences, social sciences, and the > humanities reveals extensive usage of articles years after publication. > Measuring usage half-life - the median age of articles downloaded from a > publisher's website - just 3% of journals had a half-lives shorter than > 12-months". > > It is also a fact that libraries look at usage figures, and this is one > factor in their purchasing decisions. Why else would services such as > COUNTER exist? See http://www.projectcounter.org/ Again, to quote from the > COUNTER website: "Launched in March 2002, COUNTER (Counting Online Usage of > Networked Electronic Resources) is an international initiative serving > librarians, publishers and intermediaries by setting standards that > facilitate the recording and reporting of online usage statistics in a > consistent, credible and compatible way. Later on that page the benefits of > COUNTER to librarians and publishers are explained in this way: > > "Librarians are able to compare usage statistics from different vendors; > derive useful metrics such as cost-per-use; make better-informed purchasing > decisions; plan infrastructure more effectively. > > Publishers and intermediaries are able to: provide data to customers in a > format they want; compare the relative usage of different delivery channels; > aggregate data for customers using multiple delivery channels; learn more > about genuine usage patterns." > > Might these data on usage be leveraged in some way to shed light? I don't > know if someone from COUNTER is on this listserv, but if so would be > interested to hear their perspective. > > Anyway, green OA is important for us all and good to see more discussion. > There is not a simple interplay between usage and embargo setting and > subscription decisions. A publisher who sets a 6 month embargo period will > not necessarily lose subscriptions, or at least not lose them quickly. There > are at least a couple of reasons for this. First, for exceptional (not > typical!) journals a six month embargo can be made to work. We have around > 10 titles with 6 month embargo periods, in really fast moving areas of > science where there is a lot of news-breaking content, and we believe these > are sustainable (but of course we will continue to monitor and review). > Second, the impact on subscriptions can be rather slow - some of the specific > examples cited in my original posts are titles that lost their subscriptions > over 5 or 10 years and where the publishers with hindsight understood the > long term impact of their embargo decisions. > > With kind wishes, > Alicia > > P.S. I am struck by how little discussion there has been (at least so far!) > on this list about the review of the UK national OA policy implementation > which was commissioned by Universities UK on behalf of the Open Access > Coordination Group. It covers both gold and green OA: > http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/PolicyAnalysis/ResearchInnovation/Pages/UUKOpenAccessCoordinationGroup.aspx > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of > Dana Roth > Sent: 18 October 2015 20:50 > To: Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci) > Subject: [GOAL] Re: BLOG: Unlocking Research 'Half-life is half the story' > > There could be a problem trying to extrapolate from unverified data ... > > I suspect that many of the 'freely available after 6 months' journals are > either very low cost <$1K/year, non-profit society journals, journals in a > larger package, or a combination of these. > > Perhaps David would take a look the 30 titles and provide some additional > data? > > Dana L. Roth > Millikan Library / Caltech 1-32 > 1200 E. California Blvd. Pasadena, CA 91125 > 626-395-6423 fax 626-792-7540 > [email protected] > http://library.caltech.edu/collections/chemistry.htm > ________________________________________ > From: [email protected] [[email protected]] on behalf of David > Prosser [[email protected]] > Sent: Sunday, October 18, 2015 5:38 AM > To: Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci) > Subject: [GOAL] Re: ?spam? Re: BLOG: Unlocking Research 'Half-life is half > the story' > > It is well known that what people do and what they say they will do can be > different. If you find that real-life behaviour and reported behaviour are > different then you have to look at where the problems lie with the surveys. > > There are a number of journals that make papers freely available in less than > 12 months. For example, almost 30 journals hosted by HighWire make papers > freely available after 6 months: > > http://highwire.stanford.edu/lists/freeart.dtl > > If it was true that almost half of subscribers will cancel if the embargo is > less than 12 months then how are these 6-month journals surviving? Their > subscription base should be massively reduced. If they really are > haemorrhaging subscribers surely we would now about it. > > So we have surveys telling us one thing, reality telling us something else. > Alicia would have us focus on the surveys and ignore reality. I would rather > we worked with real behaviour. > > David > > > On 16 Oct 2015, at 16:30, Wise, Alicia (ELS-OXF) > <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > Hi Danny - > > Publishers support sustainable approaches to Green OA as well as Gold OA - > indeed that was the focus of the panel discussion at the STM conference. > > For articles that are published under the subscription business model, when > and how they are made available for free (on a wide array of platforms - > institutional repositories are one important example of these platforms) does > make a difference. In my experience publishers are both evidence-based and > thoughtful about how they set embargo periods and so forth. > > The evidence that is factored into decision-making currently includes: > > > 1. Usage Evidence > > > > In 2014 Phil Davis published a study commissioned by the Association of > American Publishers which demonstrates that journal article usage varies > widely within and across disciplines, and that only 3% of of journals have > half-lives of 12 months or less. Health sciences articles have the shortest > median half-life of the journals analyzed, but still more than 50% of health > science journals have usage half-lives longer than 24 months. In fields with > the longest usage half-lives, including mathematics and the humanities, more > than 50% of the journals have usage half-lives longer than 48 months. See > http://publishers.org/sites/default/files/uploads/PSP/journalusagehalflife.pdf > > > > 2. Evidence for the link between embargos, usage and cancellations > > > > A 2012 study by ALPSP was a simple one-question survey: "If the (majority of) > content of research journals was freely available within 6 months of > publication, would you continue to subscribe?" The results "indicate that > only 56% of those subscribing to journals in the STM field would definitely > continue to subscribe. In AHSS, this drops to just 35%. See > http://www.alpsp.org/ebusiness/AboutALPSP/ALPSPStatements/Statementdetails.aspx?ID=407 > This 2012 study builds on earlier, more nuanced, studies undertaken for > ALPSP in 2009 and 2006. The 2009 ALPSP study (see the next to last bullet) > found that "overall usage" is the prime factor that librarians use in making > cancellation decisions. The 2006 ALPSP study (see points 7 and 8) found that > "the length of any embargo" would be the most important factor in making > cancellation decisions. > > > > A 2006 PRC study (see pages 1-3) shows that a significant number of > librarians are likely to substitute green OA materials for subscribed > resources, given certain levels of reliability, peer review and currency of > the information available. With a 24 month embargo, 50% of librarians would > use the green OA material over paying for subscriptions, and 70% would use > the green OA material if it is available after 6 months. See > http://publishingresearchconsortium.com/index.php/115-prc-projects/research-reports/self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-research-report/145-self-archiving-and-journal-subscriptions-co-existence-or-competition-an-international-survey-of-librarians-preferences > > > > 3. Experiences of other journals > > > > For example, the Journal of Clinical Investigation which went open access > with a 0 month embargo in 1996 and lost c. 40% of institutional subscriptions > over time. The journal was forced to return to the subscription model in > 2009, see http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/02/26/end-of-free-access/ > Other examples that spring to mind are the Annals of Mathematics, the Journal > of Dental Research, the American Journal of Pathology, and Genetics. > > With kind wishes, > Alicia > > Dr Alicia Wise > Director of Access and Policy > Elsevier I The Boulevard I Langford Lane I Kidlington I Oxford I OX5 1GB > M: +44 (0) 7823 536 826 I E: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> > Twitter: @wisealic > > > From: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Danny Kingsley > Sent: 16 October 2015 12:29 > To: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> > Subject: [GOAL] BLOG: Unlocking Research 'Half-life is half the story' > > <apologies for cross posting> > > Hello all, > > You may be interested in the latest Unlocking Research blog: 'Half-life is > half the story' https://unlockingresearch.blog.lib.cam.ac.uk/?p=331 > > <snip> > > > > This week the STM Frankfurt > Conference<http://www.stm-assoc.org/events/frankfurt-conference-2015/> was > told that a shift away from gold Open Access towards green would mean some > publishers would not be 'viable' according to a story in The > Bookseller<http://www.thebookseller.com/news/green-oa-will-hit-publishers-314667>. > The argument was that support for green OA in the US and China would mean > some publishers will collapse and the community will 'regret it'. > > It is not surprising that the publishing industry is worried about a move > away from gold OA policies. They have proved extraordinarily lucrative in the > UK with Wiley and Elsevier each pocketing an extra £2 > million<https://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/publishers-share-10m-in-apc-payments/2019685.article> > thanks to the RCUK block grant funds to support the RCUK policy on Open > Access<http://www.rcuk.ac.uk/research/openaccess/>. > > But let's get something straight. There is no evidence that permitting > researchers to make a copy of their work available in a repository results in > journal subscriptions being cancelled. None. > </snip> > > -- > > Dr Danny Kingsley > > Head of Scholarly Communications > > Cambridge University Library > > West Road, Cambridge CB39DR > > P: +44 (0) 1223 747 437 > > M: +44 (0) 7711 500 564 > > E: [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> > > T: @dannykay68 > > ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3636-5939 > > ________________________________ > > Elsevier Limited. Registered Office: The Boulevard, Langford Lane, > Kidlington, Oxford, OX5 1GB, United Kingdom, Registration No. 1982084, > Registered in England and Wales. > > _______________________________________________ > GOAL mailing list > [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]> > http://mailman.ecs.soton.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/goal > > _______________________________________________ > GOAL mailing list > [email protected] > http://mailman.ecs.soton.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/goal > > ________________________________ > > Elsevier Limited. Registered Office: The Boulevard, Langford Lane, > Kidlington, Oxford, OX5 1GB, United Kingdom, Registration No. 1982084, > Registered in England and Wales. > > _______________________________________________ > GOAL mailing list > [email protected] > http://mailman.ecs.soton.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/goal _______________________________________________ GOAL mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.ecs.soton.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/goal
