--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *35:27:19 FORMULA - A * *CREDIBLE EQUATION*
*STEPHEN DIAS* The survey conducted by Kautilya which predicted that the now popular 35:27:19 percentage points formula in favour of the Aam Aadmi Party, BJP and Congress shall prevail, seems to be credible. While newcomers AAP are also the early birds and are well-entrenched with their house-to-house campaigning, though low key and devoid of publicity, AAP looks set to take specially the South by storm considering their steady gain in popularity unlike the BJP, which is facing a stiff resistance from its own cadres not only because of its flawed policies, such as trying to subdue the populace, mainly small interest groups as far as disproportionate fast tracking of projects that people are against and mis-governance, U-turns but also from a principled splinter group the GSM, which looks set to align with the Goa Praja Party and the Shiv Sena, whilst still keeping the door open for the MGP whose pramuk seeks to become the Chief Ministerial candidate, which has been offered to him which could however upset the BJP applecart and lead to a possible dispensation with a distinct shot at forming the government, with post-elections coalition. AAP seems set to get at least 35 percent of the entire votes. AAP is also the most trustworthy party, despite brand new candidates but who have strong grassroots support and have 40 local manifestos, for each constituency which are according to the wishes of the people - people’s manifestos. Even considering the fact that the BJP will find favour with most of the families whose housewives are recipients of the Rs. 1,500/- per month dole in the form of Griha Aadhar and considering that 1,00,000 housewives receive this enticement, even if it means that each family has four members, the BJP-loyal vote bank could be 4,00,000 which is 25 percent of the total electorate of 16,00,000 Goans. Add another 2 percent who receive Laadli Laxmi and the equation works out to 27 percent, although this does not seem to be a hard and fast inclination. The disenchantment of others, tilts the balance solidly in favour of the brand new and judicious AAP, which has done its homework to perfection. The Congress seems set to have to be content with the bronze medal and so 19 percent of the vote bank share since the Grand Old Party is split and on the decline. Barring an unforeseen anomaly, 81 percent of the votes will go to the AAP, BJP (and the GSM splinter group) and Congress and the balance 19 percent will be shared by the other parties, who may not be able to make better impact in the face of too many parties being in the fray and they not being so well organized. Small dissenting interest groups will play a major role in causing fragmentation of traditional loyal vote bank share. The final tally could thus be well as per the prediction of the survey. At this point of time, the outcome seems to be well within the purview of the survey. As of now, a deviation seems to be unlikely.END
