Here are the top ten causes of death in India, which I had provided before on Goanet:
Ischemic heart disease - 15% of all deaths Lower respiratory infections - 11% of all deaths Cerebrovascular disease - 7% of all deaths Perinatal conditions - 7% of all deaths Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - 5% of all deaths Diarrheal diseases - 4% of all deaths Tuberculosis - 4% of all deaths HIV/AIDS - 3% of all deaths Road traffic accidents - 2% of all deaths Self-inflicted injuries - 2% of all deaths Here is the link to my earlier Goanet post: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg51403.html Now, unless the Goan situation is completely different from the rest of India, and assuming, by depression, he means self-inflicted injuries, I have no idea how what he has written says anything new about 2050. How the situation would be different then from what it is today, as far as the top ten killers are concerned? And why this year in particular? I noticed that the only thing that is different is the inclusion of breast cancer as a top ten killer in 2050. Today, death rate from all cancers is only 1.5% of all deaths. So to believe what he is saying one has to believe that breast cancer mortality alone would see a huge increase over the next 40 years, offsetting any medical advances that are made to increase its cure rate, as measured by long-term survival curves. Of course, he would also be making many other arbitrary assumptions, such as the following: 1. No cure and/or vaccine for AIDS would be found in the next 40 years. 2. The poverty level, the literacy level and the level of awareness about preventable diseases such as AIDS would not improve much by 2050. 3. The level of awareness about the prevention and high effectiveness of curative treatment for Tuberculosis alone would not improve. 4. No advancements in solving traffic problems would be made. Cheers, Santosh Mario Goveia wrote: > >2050?! Are you kidding me?:-)) > >Most of us will not have to worry too much about tuberculosis, road >>accidents, breast cancer and depression in 2050:-)) > >In fact, I plan to be very relaxed by that time, not depressed at all, >and >have no plans to be in any road accidents in 2050:-)) >
