Onno Meyer wrote:
That would give an effective roll of 8 on the first turn
and 9 on the second turn, for a 90% kill chance with one
mount firing six 20-round bursts. The decision to aim a
second CIWS would have to be made before the outcome of
the first firing turn is known, so it makes sense to
distribute the mounts equally.
If four mounts engage four time-on-target missiles, there
is a 35% chance of at least one leaker. That assumes all
four mounts can bear, or that there are even more mounts
(four per broadside?).
The usual pattern is two for a non-carrier (or even only one for a small
frigate), giving full coverage and some overlap on the broadsides. IIRC
the US carrier mount them in pairs, but I can't remember how many. If
it's four, you get a pair each side. If it's eight they should be in a
diamond so two pair can cover any direction. However, given the
limitations the carrier's flightdeck puts on their placement they may
not have perfect firing arcs though if you know a mjor attack is
incoming you can turn to present your best defensive arc or narrowest
profile (assuming flight ops aren't in progress).
Certainly ships' SAM systems were very
vulnerable to saturation (to the point where until the Aegis systems
entered service western navies really should have been mounting a lot
more medium calibre semi-automatic/automatic guns on their ships).
Point defense can only defend point targets. The Aegis ships
were supposed to defend battle groups.
A high-end TL7 SAM could need a skill 21 or thereabouts SARH
seeker to engage missiles at 50 miles, which means there is
a 50% chance of lock-on. No missile lock means no launch, so
only a second would be wasted.
Once there is a lock, the missile probably hits. RoF is an
issue for the older launchers, less so for VLS.
The primary issue was always the control systems - until Aegis even the
big 'volume defense' systems could, at best, control two missiles per
launcher-radar system, though at least if both were fired at one target
because they were command + SARH they could be retargetted if the new
target was close to the old one. Note also that LoS is an issue, though
in the case of a carrier group the Hawkeyes orbiting should remove this
as a consideration in most weather/sea conditions.
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