Jim, this is a wonderful analogy. And I agree with the consequences for program 
life. I am told there are still IBM 1401 (Autocoder) programs used in emulation 
...

BTW do you know of any study of the reasons why huge systems failed? I am 
trying to understand why German megaprojects failed.

Wolfgang Giere

"K.S. Bhaskar" wrote:

> I am motivated to repost below something I wrote a couple of years ago.
> My apologies for any repetition, but I think it is relevant.
>
> I would like to question Greg's basic assumption that code has limited
> "shelf life".  Code that is deemed obsolete will indeed have limited
> shelf life, but code does not inherently have shelf life.  The question
> to ask is what it takes to keep code viable with no planned end of life
> rather than what the shelf life is of the code.
>
>         Why should a system that is working well need to be replaced?
>         Successful software systems are like cities.  There are cities
>         in Europe that have been continuously inhabited for thousands of
>         years. London or Rome today would be unrecognizable to Julius
>         Caesar, yet the old cities were never abandoned and replaced -
>         they were just continuously re-developed over the centuries.
>         Although we like to discuss replacing major software systems
>         because their quirks annoy us, perhaps we should think of these
>         as limitations that must be lived with, just as in these days of
>         the automobile, we still deal with streets in Boston that were
>         engineered for horses and wagons, and we have no intention of
>         razing and rebuilding downtown.
>
>         The prospect of "big-bang" conversions of large mission critical
>         software systems gives CIOs ulcers just the way that the
>         prospect of razing and rebuilding downtowns gives city fathers
>         ulcers.
>
>         I suspect that in the not too distant future, a school of
>         thought may evolve to the effect that large software systems
>         will not only not be replaced, but also that we should not plan
>         to replace them.  Just as we may tear down buildings and build
>         highways, perhaps we should not think in terms of replacing
>         large software systems, but in terms of a process of continuous
>         modernization and renewal (with the software equivalent of urban
>         decay if money is not spent on maintenance when it is needed).
>
>         Perhaps the first lesson is that instead of asking what the life
>         expectancy is of a mission critical software system like VistA,
>         perhaps it is more meaningful to ask what it takes to keep it
>         healthy and contemporary on an ongoing basis.
>
>         Cities evolve.  With a few notable exceptions of seats of
>         Government, cities are not greenfield creations.  They start
>         small, and grow, and what they are good at changes over time.
>
>         So the second lesson for software is probably that mega projects
>         that try to do everything are almost certainly doomed from the
>         start. Although I have no personal knowledge of the failed
>         Kaiser Permanente application, it would seem to be of this
>         nature.  The history of attempts to replace VistA variants
>         (e.g., CHCS at the Department of Defense) are also not
>         encouraging.
>
>         Rome was not built in a day.
>
>         A third lesson from the analogy is that, since large
>         applications evolve, they will always have aspects that are
>         obsolete and awkward. So, if we love them, we must love them
>         warts and all.
>
> -- Bhaskar
>
> On Mon, 2004-11-29 at 10:53, Greg Woodhouse wrote:
> > My take is that the basic assumption is that code has limited "shelf
> > life"; i.e., that there is a point beyond ewhich continuing to patch
> > the same code without reriting it is counterproductive. If you grant
> > this assumption, then the next question becomes: What technolog(ies)
> > should we use in our next rewrite? That leads logically to another
> > question, which is: What are the advantages and disadvantages of using
> > a given technology? This is where I think we have failed to make the
> > case, because so often the issue is framed not in terms of what
> > advantages there are in using M(UMPS), but whether a significant
> > rewrite is needed at all.
>
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