I pulled this up this morning to reply but Scott's reply is excellent. 

I talk with clients, vendors and consultants often about trying to quantify 
savings in workload license changes with four-hour rolling averages, and that 
is a hard thing to do and harder to explain to management. You may reduce a 
peak, but as Scott wrote, the latent demand or other factors in the workload 
just move the peak. At many sites the monthly 4HRA peaks are not predictable. 

Al Sherkow
I/S Management Strategies, ltd.

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