I think there are two things that happen that contribute to phenomena like
this:

1. There is a fallacy that I see a lot, particularly in public policy, that
goes something like this: Security is a big problem. It won't help, but we
have to DO SOMETHING about security, so let's have the passwords expire. I
guess that is the same thing as John is saying in his (1) below.

2. Nobody wants to stand up in a staff meeting and argue for "less
security," so the imposition of one more security requirement -- no matter
how ineffective or lacking in cost effectiveness -- almost always carries
the day.

Charles

-----Original Message-----
From: IBM Mainframe Discussion List [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of John Gilmore
Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2014 11:41 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Special characters for Passwords

Mark,

Thank you.  I had seen a significantly shorter prepublication draft of the
Zhang-Monrose-Reider paper, but I did not know that it had been published.

It makes some plausible assumptions.  The most important of them is that
periodic-expiration requirements typically/very often induce a licit user to
construct a sequence of passwords the elements of which are variants of
their predecessors, e.g,

dorothy0, dorothy1, . . .
bin4, din6, fin8, gin10, kin12, pin14, sin16, tin18, . . .

and the like.  For such 'structured' sequences they shown that knowing an
element of such a sequence is so helpful in programmatically
deducing/searching for a successor that, in their words,

"We believe our study calls into question the merit of continuing the
practice of password expiration".

Their paper will repay the attention of anyone who is seriously interested
in computer security.

As readers of my posts on related topics will already know, my view is that
password-expiration schemes are one more example, among too many others
[like DES and AES], of all but useless schemes that are imposed on user
communities by security organizations that 1) are anxious to be seen to be
doing something and 2) are not themselves competent to make technical
judgments about the usefulness of their impositions.

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