On Jun 2, 2010, at 2:41 PM, Steve Atkins wrote:

> 
> On Jun 2, 2010, at 10:59 AM, Brett McDowell wrote:
> 
>> On May 28, 2010, at 1:08 AM, Steve Atkins wrote:
>> 
>>> Paypal is rather a special case, as they actively register
>>> many, many domains in a lot of TLDs that contain the word
>>> paypal or some misspelling of it, both proactively and in
>>> response to enforcement. I didn't consider those domains
>>> as triggering an ADSP rejection for a number of reasons.
>>> One is that many (most?) of them would have been acquired
>>> by paypal though enforcement action after the phishes were
>>> sent, and the other is that it's a behaviour (registering a
>>> huge number of domains purely to deny them to others)
>>> that's atypical and that doesn't scale.
>>> 
>>> Havning said that, I did spot check quite a lot of the phishes that
>>> I'd tagged as "not rejected" and the vast majority weren't
>>> using domains I'd expect paypal to have proactively reserved
>>> (paypal.net, for instance) - they were mostly using the word
>>> "paypal" in the friendly from, the local part or a subdomain of
>>> the domain part. Of those that weren't of that form many were
>>> things like "@paypal-access.com" and suchlike. So I think those
>>> two numbers are likely accurate to within a few percent or better.
>> 
>> Your numbers were so far off from what we see that I was perplexed, but now 
>> it's clear why.  
>> 
>> In reality we do register many of the domains you assumed we don't (like 
>> paypal.net) and we are not unique in that practice.  We have over a thousand 
>> of these domains parked.  
>> 
>> The result of this simple error in assumption has skewed your data to the 
>> point where it is no longer representative.
> 
> There's no error in assumption. The data is fairly accurate as measured (and 
> also reasonably representative of the behaviour of a mixed-use domain, I 
> think). 
> 
> First, as I said above
> 
>>> they were mostly using the word
>>> "paypal" in the friendly from, the local part or a subdomain of
>>> the domain part
> 
> ... in other words your argument doesn't apply at all to most of the phishing 
> email that ADSP failed to deal with.

I don't think you are following me... the receivers who are performing ADSP 
look-ups and enforcing "discardable" would have blocked a ton of that email you 
are reporting would have made it through.

> 
> Second...
> 
>    steve$ host -t txt _adsp._domainkey.paypal.net    
>    _adsp._domainkey.paypal.net has no TXT record
>    steve$ host -t txt paypal.net
>    paypal.net has no TXT record
> 
> ... I wasn't going to mention it, but you brought it up. The MX for 
> paypal.net will also give a 2xx response to any RCPT TO in the paypal.net 
> domain.

...and I wasn't going to mention that I tried to work with you off-list to get 
more information about your phish from paypal.net but you didn't respond.   If 
you get a chance, please do send that along.

> 
> Third, as I mentioned above, even if you were publishing ADSP records for 
> lookalike domains, most of those lookalike domains appear to have been 
> acquired after enforcement of a phishing issue - meaning that there would 
> have been no ADSP records when the phishing mails were sent, and your 
> ownership of them now is irrelevant.

As I've reported before, we have over 100 millions reasons (blocked attacks 
from our registered domains) why you are wrong about this assertion.

> 
> Fourth, as I mentioned above, even if all you said was valid, registering 
> thousands of domains in order to make ADSP sort-of work against phishing 
> isn't something that scales, either in terms of domain name system nor the 
> expense. If ADSP requires users to spend tend of thousands of dollars a year 
> to maintain domain registrations in order for it to have a significant effect 
> on phishing then it's not something that's really going to scale to more than 
> a handful of senders.

You have this backwards.  Major brands register cousin domains for more reasons 
than phishing.  This practice pre-dated ADSP and it will continue with or 
without ADSP.  It's simply an operational fact that is relevant to any debate 
about how ADSP can/should be used.

> 
>> I feel compelled to point out this error since several people on the list 
>> have been quoting your data since you circulated it and are likely to draw 
>> erroneous conclusions from it.
> 
> 
> I understand you want to discredit the statistics

and I understand you wanted to report statistics to discredit ADSP... actually 
I don't understand that but it is certainly consistent with your arguments

> - they show that as measured at my inbox, based on paypal related email, ADSP 
> dkim=discardable as currently used by PayPal to combat phishing is 
> significantly less useful than flipping a coin. 72% false positive, 61% false 
> negative.

but your processing assumptions about what would get through vs. what would 
bounce was wrong.

> 
> These statistics are quite valid, and reasonably representative.

now I'm just repeating myself...

> The only non-representative thing about them is that they're measured at my 
> mailbox, rather than at a consumer mailbox of a user who has no interaction 
> with PayPal other than transactional and bulk email (which is a big 
> difference, sure, but it seems unlikely paypal would want to drop all usage 
> of paypal.com other than for their bulk mail)..

yep, that's rather significant.

> 
> So rather than attacking the statistics that demonstrate that your current 
> usage of ADSP simply doesn't work for it's stated purpose

it works quite well actually, as a component to a multi-part strategy.


> it would be better to concentrate on fixing the serious issues that those 
> stats demonstrate. I'd start with the hideously high false positive rate,
> as that's an easier thing to fix than the hideously high false negative rate.
> 

because MLM's break DKIM signatures, it does help the immediate pain to move 
employee mail to non-ADSP=discardable domains... like I have.

> We've already discussed some ways to improve the false positive rate 
> (dedicating entire domains to B2C bulk mail rather than mixed use, rewriting 
> every mailing list manager in the world and so on). Constraining ADSP usage 
> to domains that are solely used to send bulk email to consumer ISPs strikes 
> me as something that would be acceptable to many potential users, and would 
> avoid most of the false positive issues.
> 

somewhere in there is a nugget of a good idea for a Senders BCP.

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