G'day All,

I have difficulty with this article's claims ...

> Radar missed new party
> October 11, 2004
> 
> Family First had flown underneath the pollsters' radar and caused Labor 
> the most damage in the federal election, pollster Gary Morgan said 
> yesterday.
> 
> Mr Morgan said Family First had conducted an extraordinary campaign, 
> especially on polling day, which had delivered it a small but  
> significant vote.

They polled 45 000 votes out of, say, 3 million voters in Victoia. 
Which is 1.5%.  And probably smaller than the number regular AoG
attenders.  So I would suggest that most of these votes came from the
party faithful rather than swinging voters.

It was not these votes which won them a senate seat.  But these votes
*did* prevent them from being eliminated early in the preference
distribution, so that they could sit back and get another 400 000
preferences from other parties' above-the-line votes.

Kind regards,
Lindsay Brash.

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