[From the Melbourne Age]
Terror warnings boost Bush's approval http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/10/27/1098667794562.html#
October 27, 2004 - 8:24AM
When the US government issues a terrorism warning, the president's approval rating increases an average of nearly three points, a Cornell University sociologist says.
"The social theories predict it, and anecdotally we know it to be true. Now we have statistical science to confirm it," said Robb Willer, assistant director of Cornell's Sociology and Small Groups Laboratory.
On average, a terrorism warning prompted a 2.75 point increase in President George W Bush's approval rating the following week, said Willer, who published his study in Current Research in Social Psychology, a peer-reviewed online journal.
Robert Greene, a professor of history and communication at Cazenovia College, said he did not doubt the correlation, but considered the small increase barely noteworthy.
"And I would think any benefit would be very temporary. Americans like crises to be solved," said Greene.
Willer said he took up his study in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks after watching Bush's approval rating soar from 51 per cent on September 10 to 86 per cent five days later.
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Willer tracked the 26 times that a federal agency reported an increased threat of terrorist activity - not just changes in the alert level - between February 2001 and May 2004. He compared that with the 131 Gallup Polls conducted during the same period.
"From the perspective of social identity theory, threats of attacks from foreigners increase solidarity and in-group identification among Americans, including feelings of stronger solidarity with their leadership," he said.
Terror warnings increased presidential approval ratings "consistently", Willer said. However, he said he was unable to measure how long the increase lasted.
� 2004 AP
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