Hi, For developers, Android loses steam: In four months, it went from 60,000 activated devices in February to 160,00 in June (200% growth). In the four months from August 2010 to December 2010, it went from 200,000 to 214,000 (7% growth). From early September to the end of October, Apple claimed growing from 230,000 devices to 275,00 devices activated per day (about 16% growth in seven weeks). For more details, see here: http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/12/06/android_activation_pace_hits_a_plateau_below_apples_ios.html
A couple of caveats: - Apple counts iPhones, iPod Touches and iPads in its device activations. For developers at least, that's valid - all iOS users install and buy apps. If you do the math based on the September quarter results with 14.1 million iPhones and 4.2 million iPads sold (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/10/18results.html), this comes out to about 153,000 iPhones and 46,000 iPads a day, with maybe 50,000-70,000 iPod Touches per day (sales numbers are from the quarter ending September, whereas activation numbers are from early September and late October which makes this estimation difficult) Apple doesn't say how many iPod Touches they sold; before the iPad really hit, it's share in the "iWorld" was estimated to be 40% (http://www.wired.com/ gadgetlab/2010/09/ipod-touch-sales/). - Many Android devices don't get activated by Google since they aren't officially sanctioned (such as tablets, media players or Android phones in China). At least to developers, they are less attractive since they often don't have access to the official Google Marketplace. These companies then set up their own app stores, putting the burden on developers to register with different app stores. Google requires certain hardware and software for granting access to the Google Marketplace and has an additional verification program. - The only Android tablet that seems to sell well is the Galaxy Tab with about 1 million devices sold in about 50 days, coming down to about 20,000 devices a day (http://androidcommunity.com/samsung-hit-1m- galaxy-tab-sales-early-predict-1-5m-by-end-of-year-20101203). If these are counted in the activation numbers above (and the Tab has indeed been blessed by Google with access to the Marketplace, so it should be activated by Google), then this means the number of activated Android phones has remained essentially flat since August. If not, then Google activates actually 234,000 devices a day (17% growth since August). Things that I think currently slow Android down: - Android usage in the U.S. is four times that of the world-wide average (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/11/03/ mac_market_share_slipping_worldwide). Microsoft knows that and will spend a lot of of its $400 million marketing money (http:// www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2010/08/windows_phone_7_13.html) in the U.S., reducing the Android promotions from carriers. I think that Android is a weaker brand than iPhone, so this will hurt Android more than the iPhone. - No iPod Touch competitor. I always wondered why nobody has a credible Android competitor to the iPod Touch. As the "entry drug to the Apple world", it's the "iPhone minus contract minus some features" (lower-quality screen, less RAM etc.). I think the iPod Touch is such a tough nut to crack because a media player alone isn't enough - you also need to sell content (music, TV shows, movies, books, audio books) and manage it across devices (iTunes). I think Apple can get away with iTunes be an ok app on the Mac and a bad app on Windows because of a lack of competition. - Android not really ready for tablets. Only next Spring will Android officially support tablets, probably introducing new UI elements (like the iPad did - toolbars, split views like in mail etc.) and apps for tablets only. We probably won't see much tablets beyond the Galaxy Tab until then - and the iPad 2, rumored to launch in April (http:// www.engadget.com/2010/12/07/ipad-2-begins-shipping-from-foxconn-in-february/). And yes, you need 10 inch Android tablets because the 7 inch ones look a whole lot smaller next to the iPad, and to many consumers, bigger is better (especially for roughly the same price). - Apple still seems to be unable to build enough iPhones and iPads (see http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/12/07/apple_struggles_to_meet_iphone_4_ipad_macbook_air_demand_in_china.html). Apple will fix this and sell more. - Apple rolled out the iPad in more countries this quarter (just recently in Scandinavia), expanded its distribution in the U.S. to channels like Walmart, Target and Best Buy and ended iPhone exclusivity in some countries (such as here in Germany, where now three of the four carriers offer the iPhone, except for just T- Mobile). Here are things that _may_ slow down Android: - Rumors indicate an early 2011 launch for the iPhone on Verizon. Even though AT&T was just rated the worst carrier in the U.S. by Consumer Reports (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/12/06/ consumer_reports_readers_rank_att_worst_carrier_in_us.html), they continue to sign up more new subscribers than Verizon, thanks to the iPhone (http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/22/technology/verizon_att/ index.htm). This (plus the 14.1 million iPhones sold) supposedly convinced Verizon to give in to Apple to keep the iPhone at least away from Sprint and T-Mobile (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/ 10/12/06/ verizon_may_pay_apple_to_keep_iphone_away_from_t_mobile_sprint.html). As the biggest U.S. carrier and the biggest Android promoter, shifting its marketing muscle over to the iPhone will probably hurt Android sales significantly. With a CDMA iPhone also being sold in other high- volume markets (such as India), I think the iPhone will getting a lot closer to Android phone sales again. - The biggest indicator to me: In Apple's analyst call for its September results, Steve Jobs personally showed up (which is rare) and challenged Android to see who sold more phone (he acknowledged Android did in the June quarter). Jobs is a master communicator - I don't think he'd pick a fight he couldn't win. To sum it all up: Android remains a hot platform. But in the summer, it looked like it will take the world by storm - now it looks Apple has a comeback. Given that there's less fragmentation in the iOS world and that Apple trained its iOS users to buy a lot of content and apps, I think iOS still is the most attractive all-around mobile platform for developers to target. However, I also think Android will sell a lot of tablets starting next spring, but I don't see an iPod Touch competitor arising soon. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
