---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Small Arms Survey <[email protected]> Date: Tue, Apr 12, 2011 at 4:17 PM Subject: Chad–Sudan Rapprochement: New Report from the Small Arms Survey To: Jean-Francois Darcq <[email protected]>
The Small Arms Survey’s Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project is pleased to announce the release of a new Working Paper: ‘Renouncing the Rebels: Local and Regional Dimensions of Chad–Sudan Rapprochement’ by Jérôme Tubiana is now available for downloading at www.smallarmssurveysudan.org >From 2003 to 2009 the governments of Chad and Sudan engaged in a fierce proxy war waged through the provision of material support to each other’s armed opposition forces. The war culminated in armed opposition attacks on N'Djaména in April 2006 and February 2008 and an assault on Khartoum in May 2008. By mid-2009, however, repeated unsuccessful proxy attacks, major domestic political processes, and other factors led Khartoum and N'Djaména to begin a serious rapprochement. By mid-2010 it appeared that both countries had almost completely repudiated their proxy conflict. This Working Paper reviews the specific circumstances of the recent Chad–Sudan rapprochement and the series of events that took place to bring this extremely divisive six-year conflict to a close. The study focuses specifically on the effects of the rapprochement on the armed opposition movements and the internal crises facing each country. Among its key findings are the following: The rapprochement has unquestionably increased stability in the region. The loss of external support to both Chadian and Darfur rebel groups reduces the immediate threat of armed attack in either country. Despite this increased stability, there are no political solutions to either the Chadian political crisis or the Darfur rebellion in sight, providing a combustible mixture that may once again ignite into collective violence. One of the main achievements of the détente is the weakening of the Chadian armed opposition to approximately 1,000 fighters as of early 2011. The main groups are now more divided than ever, having lost their sole backer, the Sudanese government. While Chad has expelled JEM from its territory, the group has not been disarmed and is managing to survive by expanding its areas of operations and recruitment—and could pose challenges to future relations between North and South Sudan. JEM’s primary external supporter is now Tripoli, at least until the February–March 2011 turmoil in Libya. The immediate impact of the rapprochement is not all positive: it has left dissatisfied combatants from both countries in the most unstable areas of the region, namely the Sudan–Chad–Central African Republic (CAR) tri-border area and the contested border between North and South Sudan, thereby adding to existing instability. ‘Renouncing the Rebels’ is the 25th Working Paper from the HSBA. All HSBA publications can be downloaded from www.smallarmssurveysudan.org (please refresh your Internet browser to ensure that the latest updates load). For interviews related to this publication, contact HSBA Series Editor, Emile LeBrun, at [email protected] For general information about the HSBA project, contact its acting Project Manager, Savannah de Tessières, at [email protected] --- If you want to unsubscribe from this mailinglist, please go to this link : http://mailing.smallarmssurvey.org/unsubscribe.php -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "JFD info" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/jfdinfo?hl=en.
