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Dear CPC: Do not ask the moderator, I posted the
analysis. I have also written for your paper, and consider myself quite close to
your party... so do not worry about any mole factor here! Stratfor is exactly
what you describe. However, unless I am mistaken, and that could very well be,
this is a list for revolutionaries to gather/dissiminate information. Stratfor,
unlike the NYTimes, is written for the bourgeoisie DIRECTLY. As such, often the
way they analyze things is far more direct, honest and to the point- from the
very vicious ruling class perspective they hold. I consider the source a very
good window into the mind of the upper echelons of capital. For instance, there
was a time when they reported on the BS of "mass graves"- something that
eventually hit the NYTimes,in edited form. Their source? Jared Israel,
"emperor's clothes"...
Anyway, Heikki, if you like, I will cease and
desist, it is your list comrade.
_______
Macdonald Stainsby
-----
Check
out the Tao ten point program: http://new.tao.ca
***
"Our enemies are not
our enemies due to the lots of mistakes and blunders we made, but due to the few
good things we did".
- Peron
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2000 7:34
AM
Subject: Re: Stratfor on assassination of
Bulatovic
Dear "Kominform"
Could you please explain to us why you
are circulating postings from "Macdonald Stainsby" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> containing
"intelligence" reports from Stratfor, a right-wing, "private" (and no doubt
CIA-financed) intelligence outfit based in Austin, Texas?
We await your
reply. In the meantime, please do not forward us anymore "Stratfor"
mailings.
Comradely,
Central office,
Communist Party of
Canada
At 10:32 PM 2/9/00 -0800, you wrote:
STRATFOR.COM Weekly Global Intelligence
Update
10 February 2000
Murder in Belgrade: An Elite Feud
or A Drug War?
Summary
Yugoslav Defense Minister Pavle
Bulatovic was assassinated Feb. 7
in a Belgrade restaurant. Although
media rumors have linked his
murder to that of Serb warlord Zeljko
Raznatovic, both deaths are
in fact results of a much longer string of
killings in Serbia. Ten
powerful Belgrade men have been killed over the
past three years in
what seems to be a complex and organized attempt to
wipe out many
of President Slobodan Milosevic's closest allies. Are they
split by
a deadly internal feud, or caught up in a dangerous drug
war?
Analysis
The assassination of Yugoslav Defense Minister
Pavle Bulatovic in
Belgrade on Feb. 7 is not an isolated incident. Media
speculation
has suggested a link between Bulatovic's murder and the
recent
murder of Serb warlord Zeljko Raznatovic, also known as Arkan.
But
these two murders are actually only the most recent of almost
a
dozen similar killings in Belgrade over a three-year
period.
Bulatovic is the most recent, and highest- ranking, victim in
a
long string of assassinations of increasingly prominent
and
influential Serbs.
Bulatovic was shot while sitting in a
restaurant in a soccer club
and died several hours later. The two men
with him, a banker and
the restaurant owner, were also injured in the
attack. The defense
minister was a close friend of Yugoslav Prime
Minister Momir
Bulatovic - no relation to the defense minister -- and a
strong
supporter of President Slobodan Milosevic. Although of
Montenegrin
origin, Bulatovic was a Serb nationalist, which led to his
alleged
relationship with two of the most wanted war criminals in
Serbia:
Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic.
Before, on Jan. 15, two
gunmen shot and killed Arkan in a hotel
lobby in Belgrade. Arkan's
reputation as a well-connected
paramilitary leader, brutal war criminal,
wealthy mobster and
elusive international thief left many unanswered
questions as to
the identity and motive of his murderers. Several people
have
reportedly been identified as suspects; some have
police
backgrounds.
But these are not isolated cases. The two most
recent
assassinations resemble other murders stretching back as far
as
three years, suggesting a coordinated assault on
Milosevic's
allies. In February 1997 Vlada "Tref" Kovacevic, a close
friend of
Milosevic's son Marko, was killed in a shopping mall. Kovacevic
was
made wealthy by black market dealings, especially the smuggling
of
cigarettes and cars. Despite his close ties to the ruling
family,
no suspects were arrested in connection with his death.
In
April 1997 Deputy Interior Minister Radovan "Badza" Stojicic was
shot
dead in a Belgrade restaurant. Stojicic, director of
approximately 80,000
police, had just received an award from
Milosevic for his anti-terrorist
work in Kosovo, in January 1997.
For the same reason, the United Nations
International Criminal
Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)
considered him a war
criminal. Badza also knew Arkan. Their relationship
went back at
least as far as 1991, when Badza began equipping
Arkan's
paramilitary group, the Tigers, with weapons for use in Croatia
and
Bosnia. Afterward, the two remained associates, leading to
rumors
that Badza was also entangled in drug trafficking and
arms
smuggling. No suspects were arrested for his death.
Another
close Milosevic ally, Zoran "Kundak" Todorovic, was killed
later that
year. Todorovic, secretary-general of the Yugoslav
United Left - the
party of Milosevic's wife - was killed in October
1997. Todorovic was one
of the richest men in Yugoslavia and
profited from special treatment by
the ruling family, which granted
him exclusive rights to export and
import valuable commodities such
as copper and wheat. The week after his
death there were rumors
that a suspect had been arrested, but there are
no confirmed
reports of an arrest or conviction.
In May 1998,
Jusuf Bulic was shot dead while leaving a caf�.
Although he has no direct
public connection to Milosevic, Bulic was
a known member of the Belgrade
underground who profited from drug
trafficking and gambling. Bulic, who
also owned a chain of betting
shops and a first division soccer club, was
reputed to be linked to
Arkan through underworld connections.
In
August 1998, paramilitary leader Slobodan Miljkovic was shot to
death in
a bar. Miljkovic, also known as Major Mauser, was wanted
as a war
criminal. A former police officer was convicted of his
murder and
sentenced to 15 years in prison. Also noteworthy,
shortly after
Miljkovic's death, his attorney gave the United
Nations investigators
documents that allegedly incriminated other
Serb leaders wanted for war
crimes.
All of the men listed above were connected to the Serbian
regime -
and to each other - in one way or another. They were
Serb
nationalists, several of whom organized paramilitary units
to
subdue enemies in Yugoslavia's wars with Bosnia, Croatia
and
Kosovo. Most, if not all, were tied in with the
lucrative,
dangerous Belgrade underground. They used their influence to
grow
wealthy and their high-level connections to remain powerful
and
untouchable, or almost untouchable. They were killed
in
professional hits and in most cases their murderers were not
found.
In addition to the murdered mobsters, political players and
war
criminals, three high profile police were killed in
Belgrade
between 1997 and 1999. Miroslav Bizic was a former
policeman
working as a private detective. He was known in particular for
his
investigations into murdered criminals. Milorad Vlahovic,
deputy
chief of the criminal investigation unit of Belgrade's police,
was
killed in March 1999. He had reportedly been an associate
of
Badza's. Then in July, Dragan Simic, who headed a Belgrade
homicide
and sex crimes department, was shot outside his home. None of
them
had any apparent relationship with Milosevic, but all were
in
positions to investigate the criminal underworld populated by
these
deceased associates of Milosevic.
Admittedly, Belgrade is
teeming with crime, black market sales,
high-level corruption and
murders, many of which are never solved.
But the recent attacks on such
high-profile figures as Arkan and
Bulatovic are causing the common
Belgrade citizen to worry for his
own safety, reasoning that if such
prominent and protected men can
be shot in public, no one is safe in the
capital.
In fact, the reality appears to be just the opposite.
Because of
these men's influential positions and dangerous careers, they
have
been targeted. To determine who is methodically executing them,
we
must ask: Who gains from their deaths and why?
Milosevic
himself might like to have fewer potential witnesses
around if he ever
faces the United Nations war crimes tribunal.
But, the men being killed
are the few remaining friends of the
president. They were also the men in
control of the security
apparatus that Milosevic relies upon for his
personal safety, as
well as to guarantee national security. And, this
could actually
backfire: Remember the case of Slobodan Miljkovic, whose
lawyer
handed over war crimes testimony after his death.
If
Milosevic himself is not the perpetrator, than perhaps a
foreign
intelligence agency is. Milosevic has accused foreign
entities,
such as the CIA, and Montenegrin nationalists of the recent
slew of
murders. Neither of these suspects would gain much, however, from
a
scattered and long-term campaign against Belgrade's most
elite
criminals. Also, Milosevic's accusation infers that a foreign
power
has maintained a covert operation in downtown Belgrade for
three
years - which is hard to believe.
The Serb opposition could
be suspected of foul play. However, this
would only be useful if they
actually assassinated the president.
Plus, the Serb opposition is
burdened with a history of internal
friction [http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9910082325.htm]
and
disorganization that would prevent a long-term
assassination
campaign.
Two more realistic scenarios do present
themselves as potential
explanations. The first: Belgrade's most powerful
men are involved
in infighting, and these deaths are a result of
high-level
retaliatory warfare. Serbia is war-torn and impoverished. Its
upper
class earns its wealth through power, threats and
criminal
activities. The underground is overcrowded and the military,
police
and paramilitaries each vie to be the most powerful. Milosevic
is
relatively safe in power but his associates are climbing over
each
other to claw their way to safety and riches - or at least the
Serb
version of them.
This kind of competition between skilled
fighters and seasoned
mobsters could certainly lead to a three year long
string of
assassinations. And, the overwhelming lack of closure in most
of
these cases suggests infighting, since Milosevic would
forcefully
reply to any external attack on his closest ranks.
The
second scenario: Belgrade's elite is engaged in a turf war with
the
primary drug traffickers in the Balkans, who are Kosovar
Albanians. The
poverty and lawlessness of the Balkans - as well as
its convenient
geography - funnels immensely profitable drug trade
through the region.
Heroin from Turkey is transported through the
Balkans to Western Europe
and the United States. An estimated 80
percent of Europe's heroin enters
through the Balkan route, which
is worth approximately $400 billion per
year, according to the
Center for Strategic and International Studies and
the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The Kosovar Albanians
have their own mafia to control the drug
trade. They rely on strong
ethnic identification and extended
family loyalty to hold together a
cohesive smuggling operation.
They also were tightly tied to the Kosovo
Liberation Army (KLA) and
the arms smuggling needed to equip the KLA
during its war with
Serbia. If the Serb elite is vying for the
Albanian-dominated
heroin trade, it could very well be meeting with years
of
assassinations.
Not only do ethnic Albanians have a reputation
of fighting to
protect their drug trade, but they already despise the
Serb
nationalists for their violence toward ethnic Albanians.
Milosevic
was known to use the paramilitaries for specific revenge
missions
in Kosovo, which could have been in response to the slaying of
his
own comrades in Belgrade. Not coincidentally, none of these
men
were killed during the NATO bombing of Kosovo last summer,
when
drug battles would have been overshadowed by war.
Whether
stemming from an internal quarrel or a drug war compounded
by ethnicity,
the argument remains that these eleven deaths are
related. Bulatovic and
Arkan did not die in isolated
assassinations.
_______
Macdonald
Stainsby
-----
Check out the Tao ten point program: http://new.tao.ca
***
"Our enemies are
not our enemies due to the lots of mistakes and blunders we made, but due to
the few good things we did".
-
Peron
***************************************
Communist
Party of Canada
290A Danforth Ave.,
Toronto, Ont. M4K
1N6
416-469-2446 (voice)
416-469-4063
(fax)
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
http://www.communist-party.ca
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