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>Subject: [STOPNATO] Stratfor: Iraq/Russia/Yugoslavia
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>STRATFOR.COM's Weekly Global Intelligence Update - 19 April 2000
>
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>STRATFOR.COM Weekly Global Intelligence Update
>19 April 2000
>
>Baghdad, Belgrade and Moscow Collaborate Against Washington
>
>
>SUMMARY
>
>Russia has reportedly brokered a deal to upgrade Iraqi air defense
>systems. The weapons upgrades Iraq could receive are of the same
>type that may have downed an F-117 stealth plane over Serbia during
>Operation Allied Force. After a visit to Belgrade, Iraq's defense
>minister met his Russian counterpart in Moscow April 14. There is a
>substantial history of military cooperation among the three
>countries, and Iraq and Yugoslavia have recently indicated a
>possible alliance. The possibility of such an alliance, tacitly
>supported by Russia may be nearing reality and could threaten U.S.
>policy.
>
>ANALYSIS
>
>Iraqi Defense Minister Col. Gen. Sultan Hashim Ahmad arrived in
>Moscow April 14 and met with Russian Defense Minister Igor
>Sergeyev, reported Interfax. Prior to his arrival in Moscow, Ahmad
>was in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. The past military cooperation among
>the three countries offers an explanation of Ahmad's travels. The
>three may be cooperating to create simultaneous crises for U.S.
>policy.
>
>Prior to and during Operation Allied Force, Yugoslavia and Iraq
>maintained close military cooperation. A Yugoslav military
>delegation, headed by the deputy defense minister, visited Baghdad
>just before commencement of the NATO bombing of Serbia, according
>to a March 1999 Jerusalem Post report. Both nations, threatened by
>U.S. warplanes, needed improved air defense systems. Serb
>technicians regularly serviced Iraq's Soviet-made MiG-21s and
>MiG-29s, according to the Jerusalem Post. The two nations also
>reportedly worked out a deal. In return for Yugoslavia rebuilding
>Iraqi air defenses, Baghdad would provide Belgrade with oil and
>cash to sustain the war effort.
>
>The Washington Times in March 1999 cited a U.S. intelligence
>official who said that some of Iraq's integrated air-defense
>system, including surface-to-air missiles (SAM), was of "Yugoslav
>origin" and may have been sent from Russia via Yugoslavia. The
>paper also claimed that there were reports of limited contacts
>between Iraqi and Yugoslav air-defense officials several months
>prior to Operation Allied Force.
>
>During Operation Allied Force on March 27, 1999, a U.S. Air Force
>F-117 stealth fighter-bomber went down over Yugoslavia. A U.S.
>Pentagon official initially assessed that a Serb SAM hit the F-117,
>reported The Washington Times. The official said the plane
>apparently dropped below 20,000 feet, at which time the Serbs
>optically spotted the plane and launched either an SA-3 or SA-6
>SAM. The report also cited several unnamed U.S. sources, who
>speculated that Russia had helped upgrade Serbia's air defenses.
>
>The Times of London reported Oct. 7 that Russia, in violation of an
>arms embargo, had actually supplied the Yugoslav army with new
>warheads, fuses and sensors for its SA-6 missiles. The Pentagon has
>still not officially disclosed its findings on what caused the
>F-117 to go down.
>
>Operation Allied Force stretched U.S. forces to their limits. When
>the bombing campaign began in March 1999, the aircraft carrier USS
>Theodore Roosevelt, stationed in the Persian Gulf, re-deployed to
>assist the war effort. Another carrier, the USS Kitty Hawk re-
>deployed from the Pacific region to cover the Persian Gulf -
>leaving the entire Pacific region void of a U.S. carrier presence
>for 86 days. Additionally, many U.S. warplanes stationed in Turkey
>to enforce the northern no-fly zone in Iraq were used for missions
>in Yugoslavia - leaving the northern no-fly zone under-patrolled.
>
>Recently, Iraq and Yugoslavia have expressed renewed enthusiasm in
>mutual cooperation. A Yugoslav delegation, headed by Deputy Prime
>Minister Maja Gojkovic, was in Baghdad March 28 and met with Iraqi
>Vice President Taha Yasin Ramadan, who expressed Iraq's eagerness
>to expand comprehensive cooperation with Yugoslavia.
>
>Iraq now appears to be looking to Yugoslavia and Russia to upgrade
>its air defenses. Interfax Russian News reported April 16, 2000,
>that Iraqi Defense Minister Col. Gen. Sultan Hashim Ahmad arrived
>in Moscow via Belgrade. In Moscow, Iraq's defense minister met with
>Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev.
>
>On the same day, the London-based Sunday Telegraph reported that
>Russian military officials have brokered a deal with Belarus to
>rebuild Iraq's air defenses. The report stated that the Belarussian
>state-owned military hardware company, Beltechexport, agreed to
>upgrade Iraqi air defense systems. Under the deal, Beltechexport
>will upgrade Iraqi anti-aircraft guns as well as Iraq's SA-3 anti-
>aircraft missiles. Also, Iraqi air defense crews will reportedly be
>sent to Belarus for specialized training, where they will be
>familiarized with the latest Russian electronic warfare systems.
>
>If the report is true, it would not be the first time Iraq has
>attempted to upgrade its air defenses to threaten U.S. and British
>warplanes. In 1998, the CIA uncovered a plot by Iraqi agents to
>secretly purchase Tamara - a special electronic warfare system made
>in Czech Republic that can track radar-evading stealth planes like
>the F-117 and B-2 and may have been involved in the F-117 stealth
>shoot-down over Serbia.
>
>Military and technological cooperation between Baghdad and Belgrade
>poses potential simultaneous threats in two different arenas.
>Milosevic may simply be helping Iraq to give himself some leeway
>without launching his own crisis. However, if Iraq seriously
>threatened U.S. warplanes while Milosevic simultaneously ignited a
>crisis in Kosovo, the United States would have serious trouble
>containing both crises. It is not certain that Saddam acting alone
>would want to shoot down U.S. planes even if he could. There would
>be severe repercussions, such as the extensive bombing of palaces
>and military facilities. The real threat is dual-crises in Iraq and
>Yugoslavia.
>
>Russia is positioned to challenge U.S. policies and has criticized
>the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia and the U.N. bombing of Iraq. The
>downing of the F-117 in Serbia was linked to reports that Moscow
>upgraded Yugoslav air defenses, and Russia is now reportedly behind
>Iraqi attempts to upgrade its air defenses. The possibility of an
>Iraqi-Yugoslav alliance tacitly supported by Russia is becoming
>more of a reality. The ramifications of such an alliance could
>result in simultaneous crises that threaten the safety of U.S.
>forces and the maintenance of U.S. policy in each region.
>
>
>
>
>(c) 2000 WNI, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/
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