>From: "Macdonald Stainsby" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: "Marxism (LP) List" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, >Missing From New York: America's Influence >5 September 2000 > >Summary > >This week in New York, leaders from across the globe gather. But >the most telling details are not in New York - but in the myriad >meetings that have unfolded in different corners of the world in >recent days. Increasingly, world leaders are trying to find ways to >work around Washington as U.S. foreign policy increasingly drifts. >The only thing missing from New York, it seems, will be the >presence of the United States. > >Analysis > >An extraordinary gathering of world leaders takes place in New York >this week, at what has been called a millennial town meeting, to >help mark the opening of the next General Assembly of the United >Nations. > >But the real significance is found not in the photo opportunities >or the speeches - but in the run-up to the summit itself. A wave of >significant meetings has built across the globe as major world >leaders slowly make their way to New York. These dialogues indicate >the importance of contacts at the regional levels, in working out >problems that Washington once sought to influence. These dialogues, >however, suggest that much of the world is tuning Washington out. > >In the last few days, there has been a flurry of bilateral contact. >Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Japan, the Israeli foreign >minister visited Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, more than a >dozen African leaders met in Libya, South American leaders attended >a summit in Brazil, and the Yugoslav foreign minister dropped in on >Fidel Castro in Havana. > >Each of these is interesting in itself. Putin showed the Japanese >that he did not intend to be flexible on returning the Kuril >Islands, taken by Moscow in 1945. The meeting between the Israelis >and Egyptians suggest that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is >trying to broker a deal over Jerusalem. The gathering in Libya >indicates the continued and growing influence of Libya in sub- >Saharan Africa. South American leaders are focused on the >continuing crisis in Colombia. The Havana gathering indicates that >Belgrade is trying to break out of its diplomatic isolation, while >the Castro government delights in irritating Washington. > >But the most striking theme is the absence of any overriding, >globally significant themes. In part, this is good news. Riveting, >overarching issues tend to indicate crises of global proportions. >When the world's leaders gathered at the United Nations in 1960, >for example, there were overarching issues-namely the threat of a >global war involving the United States and Soviet Union. > >But there is a pattern. Consider the meeting in Cairo. The failed >Camp David talks left Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat strengthened >against hard-liners who wanted to reject a formal agreement anyway, >while weakening Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Barak's claim to >power is partly rooted in his close relations with the United >States. But the Clinton administration chose to put him in the >position of blowing up his ties with Washington - or his coalition >back home. Barak's foreign minister went to Cairo to search for an >unlikely way out. > >In Libya, the summit represents a new high point for Moammar >Gadhafi, who has been assiduously building his influence in sub- >Saharan Africa. In spite of a generation-old attempt to isolate >him, American policy in Africa - despite sporadic interventions and >periodic visits by President Clinton - has not stemmed the Libyan >leader's influence. Similarly, neither Cuban President Fidel Castro >nor the regime in Belgrade is deterred from exploring common >interests. > >Significantly, the summit in Brazil has focused on an American >concern: Colombia. There is an underlying theme here, expressed at >the Latin American summit, a fear that U.S. policy in Colombia >might lead to an explosion that could spread to neighboring >countries. Like the gathering between leaders of North and South >Korea on the far side of the globe, these gatherings are as much >about taking control away as much as working with the United >States. > >While there is no common text to these, there is a common subtext. >These dialogues are taking place at the regional level either >because American actions have created unintended consequences that >others are scrambling to contain, or because the United States has >allowed situations to drift without control. > >In fact, there is an overarching theme: the global attempt, taken >by different actors in different ways, to manage around the >Americans, instead of letting the Americans manage the world. The >United States is the center of gravity of the international system. >But that is not to say that Washington is in control of the system. > >American power - political, economic and political - has become >enormous. At the same time, American behavior has become both >insular and unpredictable. The vibrancy of the economy has created >a sense that what happens outside of U.S. borders is of little >consequence. The exercise of power is unanchored, unconstrained by >necessity. > >The Clinton administration's hasty call for talks at Camp David, >for example, did not take place because there was a pressing >national interest involved. The summit took place precisely because >the risks of failure for the United States were minimal. > >Later this week, President Clinton will meet with Russian President >Vladimir Putin. Postponing a decision on a national missile >defense, as Clinton has done, was a gesture to the new government >in Moscow; postponement was something that Putin wanted very badly. >Now comes the question of the quid pro quo: What does the Putin >government offer the United States, in return? > >Putin has steadily moved to centralize power in Moscow and revive >the military. Even the loss of the submarine Kursk in the Barents >Sea helps Putin's cause, lending power to the argument for >strengthening a weak military. Indeed, before going to New York, >Putin went out of his way - to Japan - to drive home the point that >Russia is not in retreat. > >But what does Washington want from the Putin government at this >juncture? The answer is unclear, as is much U.S. policy toward the >Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The same can be said >about U.S. policy toward China. Clinton will meet with Chinese >President Jiang Zemin. Chinese-Taiwanese relations now seem only >nominally under U.S. influence. What would previously have been >either a showdown or an opportunity will likely yield little. > >What will be missing in New York this week will be the United >States. Its government has no clear agenda. This is not only true >in the broadest sense - say, some overarching global vision - but >in the myriad bilateral relationships throughout the world. > >The Clinton administration has generally lacked strategic direction >abroad; backed by so much economic, political and military power, >it has not really needed one. But the administration has had >immediate goals in both Yugoslavia and the Middle East, for >example. Increasingly, though, Washington lacks any policy at all - >beyond avoiding complexity and entanglement. > >This is partly the function of a presidential election and, soon, a >transition of administrations. The waning days of any presidency >are marked by initiatives best avoided and commitments not made. >But this time, the phenomenon goes a little deeper. The United >States is paradoxically the center of gravity of the international >system - and its most reclusive player, content to shape itself >instead of the post-Cold War world. > >Most global gatherings lack real import. But the Millennial Town >Meeting is the perfect summary of the state of the world. Everyone >is gathering in New York to talk to each other - mainly because >there is no point in talking to or through the government in >Washington. Few are looking to the United States for leadership. >Most are picking their way around it. > > >(c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. >_______________________________________________ > > >================ >Macdonald Stainsby. > >Rad-Green List: Radical anti-capitalist environmental discussion. >http://www.egroups.com/group/rad-green >[EMAIL PROTECTED] >---------- >http://www.geocities.com/leninist_international/ >http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/leninist-international > > _______________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki - Finland +358-40-7177941, fax +358-9-7591081 e-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.kominf.pp.fi _______________________________________________________ Kominform mailing list for general communist information. Subscribe/unsubscribe messages to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Anti-Imperialism mailing list for global anti-imperialist news. 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