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Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001 14:00:52 PDT
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Subject: [R-G] Arafat's political star falling - G&M
The Globe and Mail October 25, 2001
Arafat's political star falling
Palestinian leader's political star in freefall as many think Sharon
means
to topple him
By Paul Adams
Bethlehem -- The Peace Centre in Bethlehem's main square has adopted a new
focus in the past few days. Supporters of Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement
have converted the building into a memorial to Palestinian militants slain
in a car bombing last week, apparently targets of Israel's policy of
assassinating suspected terrorists.
Mr. Arafat's storied career as Palestinian leader is dangling by a
diplomatic thread. With Israeli troops plunging deep into
Palestinian-controlled areas, his support among his own people is crumbling.
"We can understand Arafat's commitment to a ceasefire," said one man, as
gunfire echoed in the background of the Bethlehem square. "But then the
Israelis come in here and kill three of our best men."
Mr. Arafat seems to be betting that international diplomatic cavalry, led by
the Americans, will ride to his rescue. President George W. Bush has put
intense pressure on Israel to pull its troops out of Palestinian-controlled
areas, but yesterday the Israeli assault intensified in many areas of the
West Bank.
In one raid in the village of Beit Rima, at least six Palestinians were
killed in a fierce gunfight. The Israelis, who arrested at least 11 people
before withdrawing overnight, said their goal was to round up suspects in
the killing of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi.
"We arrested part of the cell that killed the minister," said the army's
West Bank commander, Brigadier-General Yitzhak Gershon.
But even if Israel bows to U.S. pressure and quits Palestinian territory,
Mr. Arafat's leadership of the Palestinian people has been severely shaken.
"Arafat is hopeless now," said one Bethlehem woman. "He has too many sides
against him. He can't stop the Israelis. It's not that I don't trust him.
He's just so weak that he can't do anything."
Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States, Mr. Arafat has
made a series of decisions calculated to build diplomatic support. He
condemned the suicide-bombing attacks, and later criticized Osama bin
Laden's attempt to link his anti-American terrorist movement to the
Palestinian cause.
In turn, both Mr. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have given
their public support for a Palestinian state.
But from the perspective of most Palestinians, Mr. Arafat's actions have
been a disaster. In the past week, Israeli troops have laid siege to, or
invaded, six of the eight largest cities in the West Bank.
Prominent Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki says opposition organizations,
militant leftist and Islamic groups now have the support of the majority of
Palestinians. "They are now the mainstream in the Palestinian camp, not the
Fatah and its associates."
Perhaps even more serious is the unwillingness of the many armed factions
within the West Bank and Gaza Strip to respect any ceasefire. Hamas, the
group responsible for the largest number of suicide bombings in Israel over
the past year, said this week it is abandoning its tacit acceptance of the
ceasefire in reaction to the killing of one of its leaders. Even some
members of Fatah now are openly defiant.
Among the conditions Israel originally set on withdrawal from the areas of
the West Bank is that Mr. Arafat hand over Mr. Zeevi's killers to Israeli
justice.
"Any Palestinian government would be considered a collaborator and traitor
if it dared to extradite wanted Palestinians to Israel," wrote Israeli
commentator Danny Rubinstein.
"There is no chance of such an extradition, and whoever drafted the Israeli
ultimatum knew this well."
Some Israelis, and many Palestinians, believe Israeli Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon hopes to topple Mr. Arafat and the Palestinian Authority with the
latest incursion into Palestinian areas, something Mr. Sharon denies.
Mr. Arafat clearly has been deeply wounded. If he does fall to the forces
ranged against him, both internal and external, Israel's options would
likely be to impose an even more extensive occupation of the Palestinian
territories, or stand back as Palestinian factions battle it out to find his
replacement.
