From: "Macdonald Stainsby" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [L-I] Russian public opinion
(from Johnson's Russia List)
Vremya MN
October 9, 2001
SOMEONE ELSE'S WAR
What ordinary Russians think of the strikes against Afghanistan
Author: Leonid Radzikhovsky
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
RUSSIA CONSIDERS THE WAR AGAINST AFGHANISTAN
TO BE SOMEONE ELSE'S WAR. IT MAY BE CONDEMNED,
IT MAY BE SYMPATHIZED WITH, BUT PUBLIC OPINION
WILL NOT TOLERATE RUSSIA'S INVOLVEMENT. THIS IS
THE PUBLIC OPINION THE AUTHORITIES MUST TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT, NO MATTER WHAT POLITICAL GOALS
THEY MAY BE PURSUING.
Russia's official position is known. The Russian government is
making a clear and significant "turn" to the West. Gorbachev and
Yeltsin created in Russia a socioeconomic system copied from the West
and integrated Russia into the global Western economic system; and it
is now up to Putin to take the next step. He has to enter into a
formal military-political alliance with the West, join NATO, and
integrate Russia as an equal into the global Western military-
political system. The American-Afghani war gives Russia a unique
chance to do it all.
But Putin is president of a relatively democratic nation. Whether
he wants to or not, he has to take public opinion into account. Public
opinion is known too. 60% of the population of Pakistan condemns the
United States. I think figures in Russia are approximately the same.
It is a different matter altogether that no one in Russia is going to
declare a jihad on America. There will be no anti-American
demonstrations like those in front of the US Embassy during the
aggression against Yugoslavia.
... All the same, the people will repeat the words about
"American terrorists", they will gleefully speculate on America's real
or imagined failures, losses among noncombatants, etc. Moreover, there
will be constant speculations in the kitchens about American invasion
of "our" Central Asia.
All this is more or less clear. Something else is more
interesting - the motives of the persistent anti-Americanism in
Russia. Conscience of an average Russian is split into "thought-tight"
compartments. Trust in Putin is in one compartment. Rejection (radical
rejection, essentially) of his policy is in another. Rejection of
terrorists in Russia is in the third, and sympathies towards
terrorists in Palestine and Afghanistan and disapproval of the
American counter-terrorism operation in Afghanistan is yet another.
Putin's attempt to bring down these walls (his words about
international terrorism, bin Laden's connections with the Chechens -
in short, an attempt to explain that Russia and the West are facing a
common enemy) has failed.
Motives of the obstinate "anti-American itch" felt by millions of
Russians are clear. They involve envy of the wealthy, self-confident,
and frequently tactless America. They involve the paranoid habit of
attributing everything in the world to the cunning plots of the United
States and "Zionists".
There are more pathological motives as well. "Do Russians want a
war?" Everyone knows that they do not. So, understandably enough,
Russians fear that the United States may get just a bit too careless
with matches close to the Russian powder keg - and ignite it all. This
is probably the general feeling and desire in Russia. Anything other
than war. Anything but involvement in a massacre initiated by someone
else. This is a feeling that defies all possible objections.
Objectively, it is going to work against the Americans. After all,
Russia fears a war in relation to their actions.
There is another interesting psychological nuance here. The
Russian public sympathizes with the West, but does not take
"international terrorists" seriously. It fears war against them.
Russians do not fear terrorists, they do not perceive them as a
personal threat. Many Russians condemn and even hate Islamic
terrorists but they do so out of general ideological considerations,
not because of any personal involvement. The terrorist attacks in New
York do not scare Russian citizens. The experience of six years of the
Chechen war tells Russian citizens that they don't suffer from it
personally (unless they happen to have a son of conscription age); nor
do they come to any harm from terrorists, even those operating in
Russia, not in distant America. Terror is somewhere else - somewhere
it does not affect me directly. That is why all arguments about the
deadly danger of Islamic terrorism and "war between civilizations"
remain purely academic speculations. The fear that Russia may find
itself drawn into a war in Afghanistan or Central Asia (regardless of
whether or not the war is just) is more tangible.
Russia considers the war unfolding on its borders to be someone
else's war. It may be condemned, it may be sympathized with, but
public opinion will not tolerate Russia's involvement. This is the
public opinion the authorities must take into account, no matter what
political goals they may be pursuing.
*******
-------------------------------------------
Macdonald Stainsby
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