On Jan 15, 2008 5:56 PM, Christopher Smith <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Bob La Quey wrote:
> > My reasons are simple. The USA has only a recent history
> > (roughly since WW II, if one neglects the political giants of
> > the revolution) of serious interest in intellectual issues.
> >
> I think we have a tendency to look back shamefully on our own history,
> but I don't believe that this is in any way true. To the extent that the
> USA is a young country, perhaps it hasn't been focused on intellectual
> issues for very long, but I'm not sure that is much of a demonstration
> of anything. Europe had a pretty rough history when it came to
> intellectual pursuits during the dark ages (certain pursuits were going
> on, but for the most part....), but it still managed to vault ahead of
> China, the subcontinent and the middle east, all of whom had a much
> better track record. Sometimes a long track record of doing things a
> certain way isn't an asset.

I agree. I am less than impressed though with the
American love for things intellectual. The "nerd"
stereotype is very different from the respect found
for the intellectual throughout Asia.

> > What particular advantages does the USA have in this game?
> >
> A few big advantages.
> - The USA actually has a pretty big population

Around 300 Million about 1/3 of India.

> - The USA also has the largest immigrant population (and that's just
> counting the legal ones) of any country

I do agree that this is one of the largest of advantages.
One needs only look at the high percentages of immigrants
and the immediate children of immigrants in science and
engineering to see what a large advantage this is. It is
ironic in a way that so many immigrants see an advantage
to a career in science or engineering as compared to the
native born Americans.

> - The USA has a rich (in the economic sense) and thriving
> entrepreneurial market

While I agree about the fact of a rich and thriving
entrepreneurial market I am not sure this makes an
important contribution to this being a good place for
software engineering. Perhaps you would elaborate.

> - The USA has strong computer science educational institutions (aside
> from the University of Waterloo they pretty much own the top schools)

Personally I think the importance of these schools may well be
overrated. Ideas can be learned and diffuse quite rapidly into
cultures where ideas are valued. Again I am thinking of my own
experiences with members of the Indian intelelctual elite. Books
and now increasingly the net and communities that grow up around
them may well be as or mroe important than these universities.
We certainly can point to many of our collegues who gained their
core competence in other ways.

> - The USA has more people, particularly children, with ubiquitous access
> to computers than any country I can think of

Maybe, though this is changing rapidly. As India and China move up
the economic ladder and computers become ever more ubiquitous and
common this will change.

> - The USA has a declining currency (makes local labor cheaper)

Yes but that may well be cyclic. The dollar is approaching a
ten year high against the ruppee. Who knows which way it will
go after that. See
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119150097540148845.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

> - The USA can always rob the really good programmers from Canada if they
> get desperate. ;-)

Generally the USA has for decades benefited from the brain drain
of talent from poorer countries, i.e. many of those immigrants. But
as those countries move up the economic ladder the USA becomes
less attractive.

I do believe that the vast majority of immigrants to the USA
come for economic not political reasons and were they able to
do as well in the country they come from many if not most
would not immigrate.

I wonder what the numbers for educated Indians look like
now that better opportunities are opening up in India?

> Now, many of these advantages will wear away with time. Indeed, I expect
> that over time that a lot of the regional advantages that exist all
> around the world will erode and disappear over time. I don't see much in
> the way of prescription for the US becoming irrelevant any time soon.

I do _not_ see the USA becoming irrelevant but I do see
it having certain advantages and disadvantages versus other
regions. The high costs imposed on intellectual labor
by systems that contribute nothing, e.g. the high cost
of housing, are just one of many examples.

For example quoting one reporter visiting a large Indian firm:
"Upon arriving at the Satyam Infoway (NYSE:SAY) campus, there
was only one reaction: Absolutely spectacular. The place is a
sprawling oasis for its 18,000 workers. Like a modern company
town, many Satyam employees live on-site, enjoying a fantastic
lifestyle that clearly helps them with productivity."

My own view is that the USA will be the sales and marketing
center of the globe. We will manufacture relatively little and
not do much serious intellectual work other than entertainment
but will sell everything. Since there is more markup in sales
and distribution than most manufacturing this will be a good
place for the economy. It also is a good reason for us to
seriously promote multilingualism, which comes
naturally to all those immigrants.

If for instance we want to sell to the countries south of
our border (about 1 Billion people) it might just be useful
to speak their language, which is with the single exception
of Brazil, Spanish.

> > BTW. This is not a new thought on my part. During the
> > mid 70's while at Princeton I had a number of discussions
> > along these lines with Swadesh Mahajan, an Indian, now
> > a research physicist at the University of Texas Institute
> > for Fusion Studies. Much of what has happened since then
> > has tended to reinforce my earlier view
> You mean the rise of software developers from India and Europe during
> the 80's? ;-)

Yes. That is what I mean.

 (I note that Swadesh is still in the US ;-)
And I note that he is a physicist not a programmer and that
India does not have much of a program in controlled thermonuclear
fusion. Were he a programmer I suspect he would be back in
India.

BobLQ

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