>From Informed Comment If the regime did use gas, what are its motives? Iraq used gas in the 1980s because it had far fewer troops than Iran and wanted to level the playing field. Likewise, the Syrian army has shrunk through Sunni desertions to a shadow of its former self and so cant control the whole country any more. Its recent advances in the Homs area were offset by losses around Aleppo in the north, including the fall of a major military air base. Weakened armies facing a demographically larger foe often resort to unconventional armaments.
Likewise, the regime clearly is seeking to terrify the population into submission. Again, Saddam Hussein tried that with the Kurds and Shiites. Mass killings of restive populations by a regime raise the cost of insurgency, the regime hopes to unacceptably high levels. Could the Baath have done this? This is the regime that slaughtered at least 10,000 at Hama in 1982, so sure. http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2013/august/syria-method-in-assad-madness.htm Method in Assad's madness? *Syrian regime has little to fear now from using chemical weapons* [image: Tweet this!]<http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Method%20in%20Assad's%20madness?%20Syrian%20regime%20has%20little%20to%20fear%20now%20from%20using%20chemical%20weapons%20http://bit.ly/14WxsGG%20(al-bab.com)> The obvious question raised by today's claims of chemical weapons attacks near Damascus is what the Assad regime could expect to gain, if indeed it was responsible for them. Many are asking this question out of scepticism about the reports. Why do it when UN weapons inspectors are sitting in their hotel just a few miles from the scene? Why use chemicals when the regime seems to be making progress on the military front by more conventional means? These are reasonable questions but they don't necessarily reflect the Assad regime's thought processes: the Baathist mentality has its own kind of logic. Let's suppose, purely for the sake of argument, that the regime did use some kind of toxic agent. What are the UN inspectors going to do about it? Precise details of the inspectors' mandate are secret but the New York Times says<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/22/world/middleeast/syria.html?smid=tw-share&_r=1&&pagewanted=all> : "After months of negotiation with the Syrian government about access to the country, the United Nations said a team of inspectors would investigate three sites, including the village of Khan al-Assal near the northern city of Aleppo, where both sides have accused the other of a chemical attack on March 19 that killed dozens of people. "The location of the other two sites has not been made public, and the United Nations team has said it will seek to determine only if chemical weapons were used, not who used them." It appears from this that today's attacks (it that's what they were) are not included, and that even if they were the inspectors would not be empowered to attribute responsibility for them. The UN can ask to include today's events of course, but the regime could then drag out discussions until there is little or nothing to be found. Evidence may surface through other channels, only to be dismissed by the regime as coming from partisan sources. The upshot of this is that the chances of the regime being caught red-handed, and convincingly so, are fairly slim. At this stage in the conflict, though, it probably doesn't matter too much to the regime whether it is caught red-handed or not (as I shall explain in a moment). On the question of what the regime might gain militarily from such attacks, the answer may be very little. But that assumes the regime is thinking only in military terms, when the real purpose could be political. One pointer is this direction (though it might conceivably be nothing more than coincidence) is that the alleged attacks came on the one-year anniversary<http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/20/world/meast/syria-unrest> of President Obama's famous "red line" warning against the use of chemical or biological weapons in Syria a warning that Obama has been noticeably reluctant to act upon. As I suggested in a previous blog post<http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2013/may/threats-galore-over-hezbollah-in-syria.htm>, whatever the suspicions about Syrian use of chemical weapons, Obama would probably prefer the charges to remain unproven in order to avoid difficult decisions over how to respond. Internationally, the Syrian regime sees itself as part of the "resistance" bloc, constantly giving the finger to the US and other western countries, as well as to its Arab foes. Assad's strategy from the beginning of the uprising has been to ratchet up the violence step by step, to see what he can get away with, before taking it up another notch. Given this background, Assad may now be calculating that the time is ripe to cross Obama's red line with impunity. It's a risk, but if he succeeds he will have demonstrated once and for all that where Syria is concerned the "international community" is impotent and in total disarray. Of course, there are expressions of alarm from many capitals, and calls for the UN security council to meet. But it is difficult to see what they can actually do, considering that the public have so far been in no mood for military action. There is also, of course, the parallel question of Egypt. If Sisi can massacre people in Egypt with guns while the US dithers over what to do about aid, is it really very different if Assad massacres them with chemicals? Either way, the people are dead. So a short alternative answer to the question "why?" is that Assad has little to lose now from using chemical weapons and potentially a lot to gain on the political front. He may well be thinking: "If I can get away with this I can get away with anything." And he could be right. * Posted by Brian Whitaker Wednesday, 21 August 2013 * *Post your comment:* 1 Comment<http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2013/august/syria-method-in-assad-madness.htm#disqus_thread> ------------------------------ Recent blog posts Assads game-changer<http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2013/august/assad-game-changer.htm> UN gives Syrian regime the go-ahead for chemical attacks Method in Assad's madness?<http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2013/august/syria-method-in-assad-madness.htm> Syrian regime has little to fear now from using chemical weapons [image: Halabja, Iraq - 1988. Saddam Hussein gases Kurds in the North, killing more than 5,000. Eastern Ghouta, Syria - 2013. Bashar Al Assad gasses the suburbs of Damascus killing more than 1,200. ]<http://www.therevoltingsyrian.com/image/59020939608> Halabja, Iraq - 1988. Saddam Hussein gases Kurds in the North, killing more than 5,000. Eastern Ghouta, Syria - 2013. Bashar Al Assad gasses the suburbs of Damascus killing more than 1,200. <http://www.therevoltingsyrian.com/post/59020939608/halabja-iraq-1988-saddam-hussein-gases-kurds> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Yw0mvxewAw THIS IS WHAT 50 DEAD CHILDREN BEING PREPARED FOR BURIAL LOOKS LIKE. Damascus (Jobar): Aug 21, 2013 - And the world thought pictures like these would never be seen again in this day and age, the Age of Information. These children are a fraction of the (as of this writing) 1,750 people who were gassed to death by Assads forces yesterday. As many as 6,000 other people are still fighting for their lives from the effects of the attack. http://www.therevoltingsyrian.com/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- [image: Syria Analysis: 4 Points On A Chemical Weapons Attack & What Happens Now]<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-analysis-three-points-on-chemical-weapons-attack-what-happens-now/> Syria Analysis: 4 Points On A Chemical Weapons Attack & What Happens Now<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-analysis-three-points-on-chemical-weapons-attack-what-happens-now/> August 22nd, 2013 | *by Joanna Paraszczuk* On Wednesday, the Assad regime surprised and shocked the world with a wave of attacks probably with chemical weapons Syria <http://eaworldview.com/?cat=123>[image: 539059_648575721833058_941259052_n]<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-today-a-chemical-weapons-attack-now-a-regime-offensive/> Syria Today: A Chemical Weapons Attack, & Now A Regime Offensive<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-today-a-chemical-weapons-attack-now-a-regime-offensive/> August 22nd, 2013 | *by Joanna Paraszczuk* LATEST: Expert: Symptoms Of Attack Victims, as Described by Field Hospital Doctor, Are Consistent With Anti-Cholinesterase Agent Like Sarin Syria <http://eaworldview.com/?cat=123>[image: Syria 1st-Hand: An Eyewitness Account of Wednesdays Regime Attacks]<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-1st-hand-an-eyewitness-account-of-wednesdays-regime-attacks/> Syria 1st-Hand: An Eyewitness Account of Wednesdays Regime Attacks<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-1st-hand-an-eyewitness-account-of-wednesdays-regime-attacks/> August 22nd, 2013 | *by Scott Lucas* An eyewitness from Zamalka describes what happened during Wednesday mornings attacks. You call these terrorists? These are children. Four or Syria <http://eaworldview.com/?cat=123>[image: 533201_648578875166076_317197024_n]<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-audio-anlaysis-assessing-the-chemical-attack-what-happens-next/> Syria Audio Analysis: Assessing the Chemical Attack & What Happens Next<http://eaworldview.com/2013/08/syria-audio-anlaysis-assessing-the-chemical-attack-what-happens-next/> August 22nd, 2013 | *by Scott Lucas* After a long day of coverage of the regime attack that killed at least 1360 people near Damascus, I spoke [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAAMN: Los Angeles Alternative Media Network --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Digest: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Help: <mailto:[email protected]?subject=laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post: <mailto:[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive1: <http://www.egroups.com/messages/laamn> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Archive2: <http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]> --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yahoo! 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