> It's not a linear curve, it's quadratic.  I found some
> slides from the torino meeting where this was laid out very
> well but I didn't save the URL, sorry.

Ah, yes, I forgot the quadratic term. Steve Allen has
a nice page at:

http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/leapsecs/dutc.html

And his table shows the first leap hour would occur
in the year 2500 to 2600 time frame. So that's where
the 500 or 600 year value people quote comes from;
it's a few centuries from now, not millennia afterall.

Thanks,
/tvb
http://www.LeapSecond.com

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