OK let’s see if I can make myself clear

Let's use a very simple military example:
I have several source of intelligence that gives me some information.
I collect the information about related subjects and build one conclusion.
This conclusion is weighted based on the credibility of the sources and of the
information.
So I have 3 weights/probabilities - confidence in the source, confidence in the
information given by the source and confidence in the conclusion I made.

Assuming that the first two are mixed in the present source surety level what I
need/want is a surety level for my conclusion (a measure for my “educated”
guess!). And the conclusion is basically the definition of a relationship 
between
2 persons.

Of course each user gives a different subjective value to the levels 1 to 5 (and
it differs with time) but still and don't need to worry with levels 4 or 5 and
levels 3 or less must be researched.

And I agree that is always necessary an explanation of the “educated” guess.
I don’t know in other countries what sources of information they have but in
Portugal, except for the “blue blood” families, the main (and almost only) 
source
are the Church records, so I can’t wait to obtain more information from other
sources, to put people in the family tree.

L.Salreta
--





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