On 27/8/21 1:59 am, Stephen Loosley wrote:
The Doherty Model National Plan
In other words ..
The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase B daily
infection rates will be after six months .. other than to note that the
predicted infection rates will be something more than 60,000 people infected
every day in Australia.
On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully vaccinated,
between 8% and 10% of Australians will die.
That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison.
That is not how I read those figures.
The effectiveness is the percent reduction not the percent of population. So in
the AZ 2 dose 90% case, if there would be 100 deaths among a given
non-immunised population, there would be 10 deaths among the same population
immunised. The mortality rate varies with age, but IIRC is about 1-3% across
the board, so 2 dose of AZ for the population means we could expect mortality
in the range of 0.1-0.3%.
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