Wow Jan, I thought there must have been holes in the Doherty modelling, but that's a great read - a breathtaking dissection of the problems, especially the weird 180-day cutoff for the models.
Thanks, Kate On Fri, Aug 27, 2021 at 01:04:05PM +1000, Jan Whitaker wrote: > This was recommended by Alan Kohler. > > https://medium.com/@matt_11659/australian-public-fed-nonsense-as-country-heads-to-irreversible-decision-99350b80125c > > Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision. > > > > On 27/08/2021 12:17 pm, Brendan wrote: > > On 27/8/21 1:59 am, Stephen Loosley wrote: > > > The Doherty Model National Plan > > > > > > In other words .. > > > > > > The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase > > > B daily infection rates will be after six months .. other than to > > > note that the predicted infection rates will be something more than > > > 60,000 people infected every day in Australia. > > > > > > On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully > > > vaccinated, between 8% and 10% of Australians will die. > > > > > > That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison. > > > > That is not how I read those figures. > > The effectiveness is the percent reduction not the percent of > > population. So in the AZ 2 dose 90% case, if there would be 100 deaths > > among a given non-immunised population, there would be 10 deaths among > > the same population immunised. The mortality rate varies with age, but > > IIRC is about 1-3% across the board, so 2 dose of AZ for the population > > means we could expect mortality in the range of 0.1-0.3%. > > _______________________________________________ > > Link mailing list > > [email protected] > > https://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link > _______________________________________________ > Link mailing list > [email protected] > https://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] https://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
