This was recommended by Alan Kohler.
https://medium.com/@matt_11659/australian-public-fed-nonsense-as-country-heads-to-irreversible-decision-99350b80125c
Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.
On 27/08/2021 12:17 pm, Brendan wrote:
On 27/8/21 1:59 am, Stephen Loosley wrote:
The Doherty Model National Plan
In other words ..
The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase B
daily infection rates will be after six months .. other than to note
that the predicted infection rates will be something more than 60,000
people infected every day in Australia.
On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully
vaccinated, between 8% and 10% of Australians will die.
That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison.
That is not how I read those figures.
The effectiveness is the percent reduction not the percent of
population. So in the AZ 2 dose 90% case, if there would be 100 deaths
among a given non-immunised population, there would be 10 deaths among
the same population immunised. The mortality rate varies with age, but
IIRC is about 1-3% across the board, so 2 dose of AZ for the
population means we could expect mortality in the range of 0.1-0.3%.
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