Ruminations on a Friday morning ...
The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV)
infection-counts and death-counts. And the media declares raw numbers,
without providing any context to them.
This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}' death-toll was:
Italy 760
UK 559
Spain 800
To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables: the
countries' poulations and their normal death-rates.
Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a.
So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365
I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of
variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but there
could be wide variability. In particular, winter in some countries is
likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year.
It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths to
normal death-rates. As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of
deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage:
Country Population Death-Rate Deaths per Day CV Deaths Y'day %age
Spain 46m 9.1 1146 800 69
Italy 60m 10.4 1709 760 44
UK 67m 9.4 1725 559 32
A number of potentially important factors muddy the water:
1. Generally, reports fail to distinguish:
a. deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor
b. deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only one
c. deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the
virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths)
d. deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor
The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b. In
German, the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per:
https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png
This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal'
late-winter-flu peak in deaths among over-65s.
It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the
inclusion of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media. Quoting
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all
test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths".
2. It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated
death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not
infected. For example, populations in countries that are less prone to
hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in
comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.
3. A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has
been, throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion had
prior conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become
life-threatening (80%).
But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the
upper-mid Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even
deaths among the over-70s may be within the normal statistical range.
4. It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and
aged-care facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many
cases early in the epidemic. That's because staff from Eastern European
countries were terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and
large numbers of local staff tested positive and were isolated at home.
This may have resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and
becoming casualties of the epidemic.
--
Roger Clarke mailto:[email protected]
T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com
Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University
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