Hi Roger, The most complete stats I have seen are at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries They give you per capita cases & deaths, and if you click on a country there are very detailed graphs.
The timeline of cases at https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest is also illuminating. > For example, populations in countries that are less prone to > hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in > comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries. I think this point is simply a national stereotype. Check out death rates in say, Norway (lockdown) compared to Sweden (no lockdown). Or disastrous Britain (minimal testing) - all northern countries. The Germans are doing something very right, probably their massive levels of testing. The Vietnamese (tropical) are also doing very well. And your point 4 is purely anecdotal. I'd be curious to see what country in Europe doesn't have a lot of cross-border nationals working in health. Regards, Kate On Fri, Apr 03, 2020 at 10:01:35AM +1100, Roger Clarke wrote: > Ruminations on a Friday morning ... > > The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV) > infection-counts and death-counts. And the media declares raw numbers, > without providing any context to them. > > This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}' death-toll was: > > Italy 760 > UK 559 > Spain 800 > > To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables: the > countries' poulations and their normal death-rates. > > Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a. > > So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365 > > I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of > variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but there > could be wide variability. In particular, winter in some countries is > likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year. > > It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths to > normal death-rates. As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of > deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage: > > Country Population Death-Rate Deaths per Day CV Deaths Y'day %age > > Spain 46m 9.1 1146 800 69 > Italy 60m 10.4 1709 760 44 > UK 67m 9.4 1725 559 32 > > > A number of potentially important factors muddy the water: > > 1. Generally, reports fail to distinguish: > a. deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor > b. deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only one > c. deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the > virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths) > d. deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor > > The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b. In German, > the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per: > https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png > > This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal' late-winter-flu > peak in deaths among over-65s. > > It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the inclusion > of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media. Quoting > https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all > test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths". > > 2. It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated > death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not > infected. For example, populations in countries that are less prone to > hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in > comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries. > > 3. A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has been, > throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion had prior > conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become > life-threatening (80%). > > But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the upper-mid > Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even deaths among the > over-70s may be within the normal statistical range. > > 4. It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and aged-care > facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many cases early in > the epidemic. That's because staff from Eastern European countries were > terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and large numbers of > local staff tested positive and were isolated at home. This may have > resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and becoming casualties > of the epidemic. > > > -- > Roger Clarke mailto:[email protected] > T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com > > Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA > Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W. > Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University > _______________________________________________ > Link mailing list > [email protected] > http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
